| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -3.8 C |
| RH | | 39 % |
| Wind | | NE 24 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 165 FXHW60 PHFO 280145 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 345 PM HST Wed Jan 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A trade wind weather pattern is expected over the next several days thanks to high pressure north of the area. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas with the trade winds sufficiently strong enough to blow a few brief showers over leeward areas at times. Winds will become southerly early next week as a front approaches from the northwest. The front is expected to move into the western and central islands Tuesday night and Wednesday accompanied by a period of showers. && .DISCUSSION... A 1030 mb surface high is centered far to the north of the state. This is providing for breezy trade winds across the area. Moisture embedded in the trades is providing for some passing showers for windward and mauka areas with most leeward locations remaining dry. The exception is the Kona slopes on the Big Island where daytime heating has caused clouds and showers to form. Expect this weather pattern to persist through Thursday. On Friday, moisture associated with an old front will get caught up in the trades and will likely provide an uptick in shower activity especially for windward and mauka locations. The trade winds will be sufficiently strong enough to blow some brief showers over to select leeward locations at time. This area of moisture should be through the state by Saturday. The high will linger north of the area on into early next week. Passing showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas and be highly dependent on incoming moisture availability. Long range guidance indicates a front will be approaching the area from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become lighter and trend around to a southerly direction. There may be some increase in showers out ahead of the front especially on Tuesday. Current timing has the front reaching Kauai Tuesday night and then moving across Oahu and Maui County on Wednesday. The front will be accompanied by a period of showers, some could be locally heavy. It's still a bit far out in the forecast to add in the potential for thunderstorms but current guidance does indicate that there is some potential. Later shifts will be able to get a better handle on the situation as the event becomes closer in time. Cooler northerly flow will fill in behind the front. && .AVIATION... Breezy trade winds will carry in clouds and showers into tonight bringing tempo MVFR/isolated IFR conditions along windward slopes. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect for windward sides of Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai. Fewer clouds and showers are expected by Thursday. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level mechanical turbulence leeward of all islands due to strong low level winds. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure system far north of the state will keep fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in place through Friday. A slight decrease in trade winds into the moderate to breezy range will develop by this weekend, as a weaker high passes by far north of the island chain. Large surf along east facing shores will continue through Friday morning. The easterly trade wind swell will gradually decrease from Friday afternoon through the weekend as the high pressure system north of the area weakens. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all Hawaiian waters is in effect through early Friday morning. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) for exposed east facing shores is in effect through tomorrow afternoon. This HSA may extend into Friday due to continued strong trade winds. The current small northwest swell will continue to hold through tomorrow with a slight reinforcing bump Thursday night. A new moderate, long- period northwest swell will spread across the area late Friday, and continue through Saturday night. Northwest swell heights will slowly lower from Sunday into early next week. Forerunners of a small, long- period north- northeast swell will arrive tomorrow and will likely continue through the weekend. The current small out-of-season southwest swell from the Tasman Sea will slowly drop tonight. Otherwise, expect small background south swells through the weekend into early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Windward- Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-Big Island North and East. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Burke AVIATION...Foster MARINE...Almanza Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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