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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

988
FXHW60 PHFO 260206
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST TUE NOV 25 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE ISLANDS
AND WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
BREEZIER TRADES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. A STABLE
AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE FREQUENCY OF TRADE SHOWERS DOWN AND CONFINED
TO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS OF ALL BUT
KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MAINLY BETWEEN 25 HUNDRED AND 7K FEET. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURING WITH THESE CLOUDS
OVER THESE PARTS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS FROM MOLOKAI EASTWARD ARE FROM THE NORTH
NORTHEAST...THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP TO 5 TO 6K
FEET THANKS TO A NE TO SW ORIENTED TROUGH AT 7K FEET SITUATED OVER
MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNON. ABOVE THAT IS A SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH
THIS SET SETUP THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED OVER THE WINDWARD
CORRIDOR AND WILL NEED A DEEPER NE FLOW TO DISPERSE THEM WHICH WILL
COME AS THIS TROUGH FILLS TONIGHT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENTS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WHEN A DEEPER NE WIND
FLOW FINALLY REACHES THEM.

WE WILL BE BRACING FOR A FRESH ROUND OF BREEZY TRADES COMMENCING AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF AN APPROACHING MODESTLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH. THE PEAK OF
THE TRADES IS LIKELY BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WHERE
THE HIGH IS PASSING 1400 MILES NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1031 MB. LOCAL AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BIG
ISLAND CAN EXPECT RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH THEN WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHILE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH ENDS UP 1300 MILES NORTHEAST OF OAHU MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A 1025 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.

AN UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS IS EXPECT WITH THE INCREASING TRADES BUT
THEY MAY BE LIMITED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF BETWEEN 5 AND
7K. A WETTER TRADE WIND DAY MAY COME FRIDAY WHEN THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONT REACHES US. OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING A DRY TRADE WIND
REGIME FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

THIS COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE WARMER
SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN. EVEN SO...THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL COME
INTO PLAY DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES WHICH WILL MAKE ONE FEEL CHILLY
OR COLDER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOL MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSC ARE IMPACTING
WINDWARD SLOPES OF OAHU THROUGH BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RE-ISSUE THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC INTO THE EVENING.

AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND STABLE SO PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL
BE LIGHT. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BELIEVE WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BRING LOW LEVEL TURB AFFECTING IMT S THRU W AREAS OF THE
MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DIE HARD NW SWELL REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. AT 3 PM
HST...WAIMEA BUOY IS REPORTING 9 TO 10 FEET AT 11 SECS...RESULTING
IN A MAX SURF OF 15 FT ALONG OAHU/S NORTH SHORELINE. WAVE WATCH
HOLDS BORDERLINE HIGH SURF OVERNIGHT. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY.

A GALE LOW 1400 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF OAHU HAS GENERATED A SWELL
TOWARD THE ISLANDS DUE TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAKING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SIG WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 14
SECONDS. THUS...EAST FACING SHORES WITH A NORTHERN EXPOSURE MAY GET
OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS. SEAS AND WATER CONDITIONS WILL BE BECOMING
ROUGH AND CHOPPY WITH THE STRENGTHENING BREEZY TRADES. THIS SWELL
TRAIN IS COMING IN AT 020 DEGREES. COUPLED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 14
SECS...THIS IS A SET UP FOR SURGES TO BOTH KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS.

THE AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAVE BEEN ALTERED. WE HAVE
LOWERED THE SCA FOR THE WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND INCLUDING THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...BUT EXTENDED THE REMAINING WATERS ALREADY
UNDER THE SCA TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL WIND AND SEAS.

A NEW SCA CONFIGURATION COMES INTO PLAY COMMENCING AT 6 AM HST
WEDNESDAY DUE MAINLY TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. THIS SCA COVER
TYPICALLY THE WINDIER AREAS WITH WATERS OFF SOUTH BIG ISLAND...THE
PAILOLO AND KAIWI CHANNELS...AND MAALEA BAY OF MAUI. THIS SCA GOES
OUT TO 6 AM THURSDAY...AND MAY BE EXTENDED TO OTHER ZONES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WINDWARD
WATERS MAUI WESTWARD...KAUAI...KAIWI AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AND
+LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY TO 6AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...THE KAIWI PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...FOSTER










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