| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.2 C |
| RH | | 16 % |
| Wind | | NE 4 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 550 FXHW60 PHFO 250647 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 847 PM HST Sun Jun 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep a breezy trade wind weather pattern across the Hawaiian Islands through next week. Clouds and showers will move across each island favoring windward and mountain areas with brief periods of showers drifting over leeward sections. Wind speeds will decrease next weekend as an upper low weakens the ridge north of the islands. && .DISCUSSION... A strong high pressure ridge north of Hawaii will continue to produce breezy trade winds through Friday. Trade wind inversion heights are high enough to continue to produce showers across all islands with likely showers favoring windward and mountain areas with brief periods of showers drifting into leeward areas through the week. Longer range models continue to show good agreement on this high confidence breezy trade wind solution. A weak upper level low shown on GOES water vapor imagery remains just northeast of the islands and this system will drift slowly westward reaching the eastern half of the state as an upper level trough on Monday. This system is fairly weak and will not deliver much noticeable weather impacts as the trade wind inversion height is already high enough for sustained shower activity. In the extended forecast period, the ridge north of the islands will weaken next weekend in response to a strong upper level low approaching the islands from the north. Lighter trade winds may allow sea breezes to develop along western slopes of all islands each afternoon. Vog (Volcanic smOG) and other emissions from Kilauea and the East Rift Zone will drift southwest across the Kau District with atmospheric eddies west of the Big Island helping to push some vog concentrations up along leeward slopes of the Big Island. However the rest of the state will remain well protected from vog emissions by the breezy northeasterly trade winds keeping the vog plume well south of the smaller islands through Saturday. && .AVIATION... Breezy, occasionally strong, trade winds will persist as a ridge of high pressure remains northeast of the state. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence over mountains and leeward sections of all islands due to the breezy trades. AIRMET Tango may continue over the next couple of days due to the persistent wind speeds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscurations this afternoon for windward sections of Kauai, Oahu and the Big Island, which may be extended through morning for some windward sections. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail with passing low clouds and showers bringing isolated MVFR conditions to windward and mauka sections. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong trades associated with high pressure to the NE will continue through the week, with some decrease in wind speeds possible next weekend as the pressure gradient potentially weakens. A Small Craft Advisory for the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island is in effect through Tuesday night, but an extension in time will likely be required. Surf along E facing shores will remain elevated the next couple of days due to the local and upstream trade wind flow, with surf heights remaining below advisory levels. Surf along S facing shores will increase starting Tuesday as a long-period S swell arrives. The peak of the swell around Thursday will likely warrant a High Surf Advisory, with the swell gradually diminishing into next weekend. A S hemisphere storm track that is favorable for the generation of another S swell is expected the next couple of days, with associated swells potentially arriving about a week later. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Bedal MARINE...Birchard Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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