| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 7.4 C |
| RH | | 29 % |
| Wind | | SW 2 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 279 FXHW60 PHFO 141958 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 958 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far to the north of the area will provide for a trade wind weather pattern across the state. Clouds and passing light showers will favor windward and mauka areas with just a few showers possible over select leeward locations. An upper low will move over the area toward the middle of next week possibly increasing shower coverage across the state. && .DISCUSSION... A 1029 mb surface high is centered far to the north of the state. This places the islands in a moderate trade wind regime. Moisture embedded in the trades is producing a few light passing showers over windward and mauka areas while leeward locations are generally dry. Trade winds may pick up a bit tonight through Saturday night as a weak area of low pressure passes by south of the state, tightening up the pressure gradient just a bit. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will be building in from the east keeping the airmass on the stable side. Shower activity will continue to favor windward and mauka areas and will be highly dependent on incoming moisture availability. By Sunday, trade winds will be on the decline as a front begins to drop southward far to our north. This will disrupt the pressure gradient causing trade winds to become lighter. More wind sheltered areas will likely experience daytime sea breezes under this weather regime. A few passing showers can be expected mainly over windward and mauka areas. By the middle of next week, an upper low is forecast to drop down over the area from the north. This will cause some destabilization of the airmass over the area. This may allow for greater shower coverage but shower activity will still be dependent on incoming moisture availability. && .AVIATION... Moderate trades will become moderate-to-breezy tonight into Saturday. A weak trough approaching the Islands from the east will bring an increasing coverage of showers and MVFR to windward areas beginning with the Big Island this evening and spreading across the remainder of the islands through tonight. No AIRMETs are in effect. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed for windward areas tonight. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh trades will continue today, then briefly increase into the fresh to strong category tonight through late Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens over the islands in response to low pressure passing far to the south. This will likely translate to a Small Craft Advisory being issued for the typical windier waters between Maui County and the Big Island later this afternoon. Guidance shows winds weakening Sunday into early next week as the area of low pressure to the south continues westward and the ridge weakens. Surf along east facing shores will hold steady into the weekend near or just under the advisory level of 8 ft as a moderate northeast swell moves through. North facing shores exposed to this swell will also see a small increase in surf. Surf will gradually ease Sunday into early next week as the winds relax locally and the swell drops. Although confidence remains low, a small easterly swell is still possible this weekend due to distant tropical cyclone Elida in the eastern Pacific, especially for the eastern end of the state. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Saturday, then gradually trend up Sunday into early next week as a small, south-southwest swell arrives. WAVEWATCH III guidance shows a reinforcement from the same direction Monday night through Tuesday, which should hold through midweek before easing. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BB AVIATION...JVC MARINE...TS Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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