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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

009
FXHW60 PHFO 092005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS THANKS TO A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST FOR THE SMALLER
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING LIGHT WINDS
IN PLACE. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S THIS MORNING. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEN A HIGH FORMS AND
PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY ONWARDS. AS THE HIGH FORMS
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR GENTLE TRADE WINDS
TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE ISLANDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TRADES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FRONT APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. A STRONG HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT...OR ITS REMNANTS...OVER THE ISLANDS
AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN OVER KAUAI
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSER TO MONDAY MORNING FOR OAHU. OF COURSE PRE-
FRONTAL BANDS COULD SET UP...SO DEFINITELY EXPECT MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
OR TOMORROW. WHILE WE WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...AND
PEAK WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS ARE 16 TO 18 FEET BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE RESULTANT WELL ABOVE WARNING LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE SWELL WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY TO
NORTH FACING SHORES ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT HIGH SURF WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THE WEST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND
WILL BE ADDED TO THE WARNING LATER TODAY...WITH ARRIVAL TIME THERE
LATE WEDNESDAY.

SEE THE SURF DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WAVE RUN-UP.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDWARD WATERS DUE
TO THE ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE CURRENT SUBSIDING NORTHWEST SWELL. AS
THE NEXT VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL REACHES THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...THE COASTAL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE
INCREASED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

M BALLARD