| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.3 C |
| RH | | 26 % |
| Wind | | NW 14 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 597 FXHW60 PHFO 281330 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A STRONG HINT OF LAND BREEZES...WHILE BUOYS FURTHER OFFSHORE...AND SATELLITE-BASED SCATTEROMETER DATA...SHOWED INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALOFT...BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGING STILL LINGERED OVER THE STATE...THOUGH A BROADER TROUGH SLOWLY DENTED THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WAS PRESENT TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION AT NEAR ITS USUAL HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINED SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGESTED GRADUAL MOISTENING DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS OR SO. STRATOCUMULI SPREAD AROUND MOST OF THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THESE LOW CLOUDS STILL APPEARED MOSTLY STABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR DATA SHOWED INCREASED SPECKLES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WATER. WHERE THE LAND BREEZES PERMITTED...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED ASHORE...DROPPING ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN PLACES. THUS...CLOUD COVER...POPS...AND RELATED FIELDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE RESULTING FORECAST WAS NOT EXACTLY WET...IT CERTAINLY WAS LESS DRY THAN EARLIER THINKING HAD ANTICIPATED. GUIDANCE PREDICTED THE FEEBLE FRONT NOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS DID BOOST THEIR PREDICTIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS SUPPORT FURTHER TO THE NORTH...LIMITING ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE. THUS... RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DIURNAL...SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS MAY WELL PRODUCE MORE RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF. BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOTION OF MID-LEVEL LOWS NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IF MOST TRACK WELL NORTH...THEN ONLY WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGHING MAY BE PRESENT NEARBY...GREATLY LIMITING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE LOWS...AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE... CONSENSUS PREDICTED MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT THAN THE FIRST ONE...SO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE PRESENT. && .MARINE... LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COMBINED SEAS IN SOME AREAS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA. && $$ RYSHKO Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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