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Temp10.9 C
RH17 %
WindNE 8 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

597
FXHW60 PHFO 241946
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
946 AM HST Sun May 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds out of the east to southeast direction will continue
through Tuesday as a weak disturbance near Kauai continues
westward and away from the islands. Winds should be light enough
for afternoon sea breezes, allowing for showers to develop over
interior and leeward areas. A return of a more typical trade wind
pattern is expected by midweek as a ridge of high pressure
strengthens north of the state.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak surface trough just northwest of Kauai has weakened the
pressure gradient, allowing for land breezes to develop overnight.
Latest radar and satellite imagery is showing a few showers for
select areas this morning. As we head into the afternoon today, we
should see sea breezes develop. This will lead to scattered
showers in the afternoon, with the showers favoring interior and
leeward areas. With the weak flow aloft, any showers that do
develop will be slow moving and could cause some heavy rain for
select areas. Overnight tonight, we should see land breezes
develop and shower coverage decrease. A few isolated showers will
remain possible due to the weak surface trough lingering
northwest of Kauai.

For Monday and Tuesday, we are looking at the surface trough
moving further away from the area. This should help stabilize the
atmosphere just a little bit. For the most part, we should see a
similar weather pattern to today, with land/sea breezes developing
and afternoon showers focused over interior and leeward areas.
Overnight, showers will decrease as land breezes develop.

Starting Wednesday, high pressure building north of the state
should bring the return of moderate easterly trade winds. With a
stable atmosphere aloft, showers will mainly favor windward and
mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours. This
stable trade wind pattern could continue through the end of next
week.



&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure dominating far northeast of the islands will allow
for mainly light easterly flow today. Thus, sea breeze will
likely form this afternoon along the leeward coasts. With
sufficient moisture in place, expect scattered showers to develop
over the interiors of the islands and spread at random as the
afternoon progresses. Brief MVFR conditions may be possible with
the heavier shower activity, but not anticipation anything
widespread.

No AIRMETs are in effect at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will hold around the Big
Island and Maui through Tuesday, while gentle to moderate east-
southeast winds will prevail from Molokai to Kauai. The
subtropical ridge currently sits about 350 nm north of Kauai and
will continue to drift southward during the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough just northwest of Kauai is
lifting away to the northwest and will slowly dissipate. The net
effect will be little change in local winds during the next few
days. Trade winds will rebuild around Wednesday as stronger high
pressure passes north of the state.

South facing shores will see periods of surf around the May
average through much of the week. A longer period south-southwest
swell will combine with a small south-southeast swell to produce
moderate sized surf near or just below May average through
Memorial Day, followed by a slight drop on Tuesday. Another pulse
of south-southwest swell is due late Thursday through Saturday.

A series of small northwest swells will produce surf near the May
average along north facing shores through much of the week. The
small swell will shift out of the north Friday and Saturday.

Surf along east facing shores will be below May average through
the week as trade winds over and upstream of the state remain
weaker than normal.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Wroe

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office