| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 9.3 C |
| RH | | 30 % |
| Wind | | NE 8 mph |
| Road | | Closed |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 197 FXHW60 PHFO 091951 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 951 AM HST Mon Dec 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled front north of the state will maintain light easterly winds through the first half of the week. Mostly dry and stable weather will prevail with a few clouds and showers setting up over interior areas each afternoon due to sea breezes. Increasing moisture associated with a second front will bring increasing showers Thursday and gusty northeast winds by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... A stalled front just north of Kauai will weaken in place over the next few days bringing benign weather and light easterly trade winds to the islands through midweek. Sea breezes are expected along leeward coastlines, and interior and mountain locations will see afternoon clouds and limited light showers. Stable conditions aloft are keeping cloud tops limited to around 8 thousand feet and any showers that do form over the islands have been short-lived. A weak trough to our south has increased shower activity over the coastal waters south of the Big Island, and a low level convergence area has created a thin line of showers over the Kauai Channel. Otherwise, skies over the islands this morning are mostly clear. Expect increasing cloudiness this afternoon over interior areas and over the mountains as daytime heating creates some upward motion and leeward sea breezes kick in. Expect similar conditions through Wednesday. Thursday, synoptic weather conditions begin to change as a second, more robust cold front approaches from the northwest, and an upper level trough brings colder temperatures aloft that will trigger increasing shower coverage and rainfall intensity. Showers are expected to increase over Kauai Thursday evening and then the rest of the state Thursday night. The front will also bring strong gusty northeast winds Thursday night and Friday. However, the GFS and ECMWF global models are having quite a hard time coming into agreement with the details of the front and upper trough at this time. Historically, similar weather patterns have brought the lion's share of rain to Kauai, with the rest of the state seeing frequent windward showers and passing leeward rainfall. The forecast will continue to be updated as the model solutions converge. Saturday, the front is forecast to retreat to the north and dissipate while the upper trough weakens and the atmosphere becomes more stable. Trade winds are expected to drop to moderate levels while shower coverage decreases and focus over windward and mountain areas. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail at all the TAF sites and these conditions are expected to prevail through the day on into the evening hours. Elsewhere Vfr conditions prevail across the remainder of the state. Some local MVFR conditions may occur during the afternoon and evening hours over mountainous terrain as daytime heating allows for some cloud buildups and isolated -shra. && .MARINE... There are no warnings or advisories in effect for the Hawaiian coastal or offshore waters today. A ridge north of the area will maintain light to moderate winds over the area through tomorrow night. Winds will strengthen starting Wednesday as a front moves over the area from the northwest and a strong high builds in behind it. A new northwest swell is beginning to fill in and will spread down the island chain today. This swell is forecast to produce surf above the advisory threshold along north and west facing shores starting this evening and holding through Wednesday morning. As this swell subsides Wednesday, a much larger northwest swell is expected to produce surf well above warning levels along north and west facing shores of the smaller islands beginning Wednesday night into Friday. This swell may also be large enough to produce advisory level surf along west facing shores of the Big Island. The swell is expected to gradually subside through Friday night. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morrison AVIATION...Burke MARINE...TS Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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