NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
542
FXHW60 PHFO 020643
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
843 PM HST Wed May 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will strengthen on Thursday and become breezy Friday
through the weekend. Rainfall will favor typical windward slopes,
with an increase in showers expected this weekend through the
first half of next week as a disturbance aloft passes overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure centered far northeast of the state and a trough
just northwest of Kauai will maintain light to moderate east to
east-southeast winds over the western half and moderate easterly
trades over the eastern half of the state through tonight. For
tonight, we should see fairly dry conditions with a few scattered
over windward areas and isolated showers possible over leeward
areas.
As the trough weakens and shifts westward on Thursday, high
pressure will build over the region and trade winds will
strengthen. By Friday, breezy trades are expected across the state
with locally strong trades over windier areas of Maui County and
the Big Island. As the trades strengthen, showers will also
increase primarily over windward and mauka areas. An upper level
low approaching the state from the west this weekend, should help
enhance the showers and will allow for brief downpours this
weekend into early next week. Although details are still
uncertain, windward and mauka areas could be come quite showery
through early next week, especially the western end of the state
where the best instability exists.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate E to ESE winds will gradually strengthen through
Thursday. SHRA and isol MVFR conds expected windward and mauka
locations. VFR conditions will prevail leeward, except for
isolated areas of MVFR conds over leeward Big Island in the
afternoon and evening.
No AIRMETs are posted, but increased low-level turb to the lee of
the terrain is expected by Thursday, likely prompting the
issuance of AIRMET Tango.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will shift south through
the rest of the week and dissipate as another high pressure
builds to the north. A weak trough northwest of the state will
begin to move far west of state over the next few days. In
response, moderate to locally strong east-southeast winds will
become more easterly overnight into Thursday. These easterly trade
winds will then strengthen to fresh to locally strong Friday and
hold into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui
through Thursday. This advisory will likely be expanded to include
additional waters in the next package.
Tiny surf will persist along north and west facing shores through
Friday. A small, long period northwest swell is expected to fill
in Friday night and peak Saturday, bringing small surf along
north and west facing shores. Another small, long period
northwest swell will fill in late Sunday, maintaining small surf
along north and west facing shores into early next week. Small
background south swells will continue through Saturday, providing
tiny surf for south facing shores. A small, long period south
swell may fill in over the weekend providing a boost in surf along
south facing shores into early next week. Small, choppy surf
along east facing shores will gradually become rough and choppy
Thursday into early next week as trades return.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue/Kino
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
542
FXHW60 PHFO 020643
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
843 PM HST Wed May 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will strengthen on Thursday and become breezy Friday
through the weekend. Rainfall will favor typical windward slopes,
with an increase in showers expected this weekend through the
first half of next week as a disturbance aloft passes overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure centered far northeast of the state and a trough
just northwest of Kauai will maintain light to moderate east to
east-southeast winds over the western half and moderate easterly
trades over the eastern half of the state through tonight. For
tonight, we should see fairly dry conditions with a few scattered
over windward areas and isolated showers possible over leeward
areas.
As the trough weakens and shifts westward on Thursday, high
pressure will build over the region and trade winds will
strengthen. By Friday, breezy trades are expected across the state
with locally strong trades over windier areas of Maui County and
the Big Island. As the trades strengthen, showers will also
increase primarily over windward and mauka areas. An upper level
low approaching the state from the west this weekend, should help
enhance the showers and will allow for brief downpours this
weekend into early next week. Although details are still
uncertain, windward and mauka areas could be come quite showery
through early next week, especially the western end of the state
where the best instability exists.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate E to ESE winds will gradually strengthen through
Thursday. SHRA and isol MVFR conds expected windward and mauka
locations. VFR conditions will prevail leeward, except for
isolated areas of MVFR conds over leeward Big Island in the
afternoon and evening.
No AIRMETs are posted, but increased low-level turb to the lee of
the terrain is expected by Thursday, likely prompting the
issuance of AIRMET Tango.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will shift south through
the rest of the week and dissipate as another high pressure
builds to the north. A weak trough northwest of the state will
begin to move far west of state over the next few days. In
response, moderate to locally strong east-southeast winds will
become more easterly overnight into Thursday. These easterly trade
winds will then strengthen to fresh to locally strong Friday and
hold into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui
through Thursday. This advisory will likely be expanded to include
additional waters in the next package.
Tiny surf will persist along north and west facing shores through
Friday. A small, long period northwest swell is expected to fill
in Friday night and peak Saturday, bringing small surf along
north and west facing shores. Another small, long period
northwest swell will fill in late Sunday, maintaining small surf
along north and west facing shores into early next week. Small
background south swells will continue through Saturday, providing
tiny surf for south facing shores. A small, long period south
swell may fill in over the weekend providing a boost in surf along
south facing shores into early next week. Small, choppy surf
along east facing shores will gradually become rough and choppy
Thursday into early next week as trades return.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue/Kino
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office