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Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Hawaiian Islands 7-day Zone Forecast Terminal Aerodome Foreasts (TAFS) Area Forecast for Hawaii and Adjacent Coastal Waters AIRMETs for IFR Conditions, Turbulence, and Icing Oahu Surf Observation and Forecast/Coastal Forecast for Hawaiian Waters Offshore Forecast for Hawaiian Waters North Pacific High Seas Forecast South Pacific High Seas Forecast Hawaiian Islands Automated Surface Observation System Hourly Weather Roundup Hawaiian Islands Wind Data Hawaiian Islands Rainfall Summary Daily Hawaii Cooperative Observations

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 013 FXHW60 PHFO 280142 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 342 PM HST Thu Jan 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather and light winds will continue through Friday, with sea breezes producing interior clouds and a few showers in the afternoon. A brief return of trade winds Friday night and Saturday will produce limited windward rainfall. Winds will decline again on Sunday ahead of a weak front that will brush the state late Monday. Trade winds will make another short comeback Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Mainly light winds will be interrupted by brief bouts of trade winds this week. Dry and stable conditions and rather light winds are in place this afternoon. A cold front 400 miles northwest of Kauai is pushing a surface ridge to within 200 miles north the state. Winds have eased and veered southeasterly, especially near Oahu and Kauai, and as a result, sea breezes dominate over most areas this afternoon. A ridge aloft remains over the state, resulting in an inversion based between 4,000 and 5,000 ft, and precipitable water over and just upwind of the islands remains under an inch. Under these stable and rather dry conditions, scant rainfall occurred during the past 24 hours. Little change is due tonight and Friday. The surface ridge will stall less than 100 miles north of Kauai, leaving weak southeasterly winds from Kauai to Maui and more easterly winds around the Big Island. Overnight land breezes will clear out low clouds over most areas, and with the atmosphere remaining rather dry and stable, afternoon sea breezes will produce only a few interior showers. A short-lived increase in trade winds will occur Friday night and Saturday. The above mentioned front will dissipate before reaching the islands, and a following surface high will quickly pass north of the state, leading to a brief period of gentle to moderate trade winds. The air mass will remain stable and somewhat dry, suggesting minimal windward rainfall. Winds will ease and shift southeasterly again Sunday and Monday as another front approaches the state. Expect a return to a land and sea breeze pattern, and with mid level ridging in place, showers should be modest and favor interior areas each afternoon. The latest GFS run has come into better agreement with the ECMWF, showing that the front will stall and dissipate near Kauai Monday night. An upper level trough will swing over the islands Monday night, but enhancement to showers is not appearing likely at this time. Another quick bout of trade winds may occur on Tuesday, followed by a return to variable winds Wednesday as a surface high moves overhead. && .AVIATION... A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will produce relatively dry and stable conditions with light to moderate east to southeast winds across the state. Land breezes will develop this evening in many areas with clouds gradually clearing over interior and mountain areas. Another similar day is expected on Friday with light winds and daytime sea breezes developing. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. AIRMET Tango had been cancelled earlier today and there are no advisories currently in effect. && .MARINE... Wind speeds remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the region this afternoon as a front to our northwest has pushed the subtropical ridge southward near Kauai. Winds have veered to southeasterlies across the western half of the state while light to moderate trade winds persist farther to the east. Stronger trade winds will return this weekend. A northwest swell will continue to diminish tonight, remaining below advisory thresholds through Friday afternoon. The next in a series of northwest swells will arrive Friday night, pushing surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores into the low end High Surf Advisory (HSA) range by Saturday. Another larger northwest swell arrives on Tuesday morning with solid HSA conditions expected from Tuesday into Wednesday. South shore surf will remain very small today and tomorrow, with a small boost possible from Friday into the weekend. Very small surf will continue along east facing shores into early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...Kinel/Kino MARINE...Powell Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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This page was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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