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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 240135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
335 PM HST Wed Jan 23 2019
A ridge will remain nearly stationary near Kauai through tomorrow.
A front will move southeast over Kauai on Friday, then continue
southeast, past the Big Island by Saturday night. A high will
build north of the area early next week.
The surface analysis shows a northeast to southwest surface ridge
just northwest of Kauai. The ridge is forecast to remain nearly
stationary through tomorrow. This ridge will produce moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds near the Big Island and Maui.
There will be light to gentle southeast winds farther west, with
nighttime land breezes followed by daytime sea breezes. A ridge
aloft over the islands will keep the atmosphere dry and stable.
The trade winds will push some clouds and showers over windward
areas of the Big Island and Maui, mainly during the night and
morning hours. Afternoon sea breezes will produce clouds over
leeward areas of the Big Island and Maui and over interior areas
from Lanai to Kauai. Rainfall amounts will be limited.
A front will move southeast over Kauai on Friday, continue
southeast across the rest of the islands and push southeast of the
Big Island by Saturday night. A band of showery low clouds along
the front will bring widespread showers to windward areas, but the
clouds will be too shallow to bring much rain to leeward areas.
A surface high will move southeast behind the front, bringing
breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures.
A ridge just north of Kauai will dominate the weather pattern
tonight and generate light east southeast flow. This will allow
for local land breezes to develop this evening and continue into
tonight. Isolated showers over interior areas this evening will
shift towards the windward slopes and coasts later tonight. Brief
MVFR conds may occur, due to lowered visibility in -SHRA, otherwise
A weak northeast to southwest ridge is just north of Kauai. This
is keeping island waters under light to moderate east to southeast
winds. A cold front is forecast to move across the area on Friday
and Saturday, bringing a brief period of moderate to locally
strong northeast winds.
A large west-northwest to northwest swell arrived this morning
with the Hanalei buoy peaking at almost 12 feet at 15 seconds.
Kauai's north shore observations reported heights up to 20 feet
just before the buoy peak. Wave heights have been decreasing since
this morning's peak which is consistent with the timing and trend
at Buoy 51001 northwest of Kauai. Since the Hanalei data are more
in line with a high-end High Surf Advisory, the High Surf Warning
for Kauai and Niihau will be replaced with an advisory. Islands
east of Kauai will be a bit blocked with a swell from this
direction so slightly smaller swells are expected for these areas.
Thus, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the north and/or west
facing shores from Oahu to the Big Island. Swell heights should
trend downward on Thursday.
A smaller west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Thursday
night, peak on Friday, and gradually decline on Saturday. Advisory
level surf is expected from this episode. Late in the forecast
period, another west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive and
produce surf near the advisory level Sunday night and into Monday.
An east swell will produce elevated level surf along east facing
shores through tonight. This swell will decrease on Thursday.
Due to the large swell moving across the area and locally gusty
winds in some of the channels, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in
effect for winds and seas through Thursday. SCA conditions will
also be produced by the gusty winds associated with Friday's cold
front combined with a new west-northwest swell.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for north and west facing
shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, north facing shores of
Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Thursday for waters around Kauai,
and Oahu Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters and the Big
Island Windward waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office