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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

421
FXHW60 PHFO 200333 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
530 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AREAS HAVE EITHER BEEN
DROPPED OR ADJUSTED. THIS UPDATE REFLECT THE CHANGES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

NO LONGER IN EFFECT IS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW REPLACES IT.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER BROUGHT ON BY ANA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE NEW WEEK WHILE KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LIGHT TRADES SHOULD SPREAD TO OAHU BY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SINCE THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANA WAS JUST DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO.

AT 3 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 160.9W...OR ABOUT 130
MILES SW OF LIHUE KAUAI AND 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

AS ANA PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THERE
WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO KAUAI
COUNTY AND OAHU TO 6 PM HST MONDAY. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT
THIS WILL ALLOW TOMORROW/S DAY CREW TO REASSESS THE SITUATION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY SINCE IT HAS BEEN
A RATHER QUIET DAY THERE TODAY...AND ALL LIKELIHOOD IF THERE IS ANY
FLARE UPS...IT WILL BE ISOLATED OR LOCAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.

OAHU CONTINUED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE TWO ARE MANOA LYON ARBORETUM
AT 7.21 INCHES AND WAIHEE PUMP AT 5.07 INCHES. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
OF INTEREST...KUNIA SUBSTATION AT 4.95 INCHES AND LUALUALEI RIGHT
BEHIND AT 4.94 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE THE READINGS ENDING AT 2 PM
HST. AGAIN...MAUI COUNTY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR WITH
MINIMAL RAINS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN THE HILO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET ELSEWHERE. WE DO
EXPECT SOME QUICK FLARE UPS ESPECIALLY THE KONA AND KAU AREAS OF THE
ISLAND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND FORECASTS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTPA25 PHFO AND TCMCP5. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES UNDER HEADERS WTPA35 PHFO AND TCPCP5...AND DISCUSSIONS
UNDER HEADERS WTPA45 PHFO AND TCDCP5. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT UNDER
HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OF ANA ON TUESDAY. THE
WIND FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TRADES FROM
MAUI EASTWARD. STRONGER TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ISLANDS ARE PRONE TO HAVE
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE GRIDS MAY NOT REFLECT THIS AND WILL BE
WORKED ON OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANA CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE REGION FROM
MOLOKAI AND LANAI TO THE WATERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING OVER MOLOKAI AND
LANAI...BUT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE LAYERED CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA HAVE PROMPTED AN AIRMET FOR
ICING...FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...AND FOR TURBULENCE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR HURRICANE ANA.


&&

.MARINE...
ANA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE LEEWARD
WATERS OF KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE KAUAI CHANNEL WHERE OCEAN
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR KAUAI/S NORTHWEST AND WINDWARD WATERS WAS LOWERED
EARLIER AT AROUND NOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE TWO ZONES. THE SITUATION IS FLUID AND CHANGING HOWEVER.
SO...STAY WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HONOLULU.

THE SWELL FROM ANA WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU. THERE IS ALSO
AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI
AND THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WATERS FROM
MAUI COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALL PEOPLE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST BULLETINS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HURRICANE ANA LOCAL STATEMENT AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII UNDER HEADERS WTHW80 PHFO AND HLSHFO.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA / FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS NOW IN PLACE
FOR THE WINDWARD MAUI WATERS DUE TO THE ABOVE SEAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME OF THE
ZONES ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU SOUTH SHORE-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

LAU












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