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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

934
FXHW60 PHFO 280148
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL AFFECT
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE...WITH A HIGH SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH
FAR TO THE NORTH. A BROAD LOW AND ELONGATED TROUGH IS LOCATED FAR
SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. 00Z RAOBS SHOW A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION NEAR 6KFT AT HILO
AND A WEAKER ONE NEAR 5KFT AT LIHUE...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERSIONS
NEAR 12-13KFT AS WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NEAR 1.4 INCHES.
EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXTENDING EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT ACROSS THE STATE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. AN AREA OF STABLE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND MIXED OUT DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE HIGH DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN...WE MAY SEE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL WE EXPECT
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND SETUP WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE MAY SEE A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT COULD BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN
BACK AND FORTH WITH TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING THE
MOISTURE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...12Z MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE STARTING TO
INCREASE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE. REFER TO THE BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS VEERED MORE E/ESE TODAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE AND BACKING TO
E/ENE TRADES IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB
IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN MAY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH ONLY BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS CARRYING ISOL MVFR CIGS/VIS...MAINLY AFFECTING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE
STRONGER WINDS MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY BRING MINOR BUMPS ON SOUTH
FACING SHORES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT
PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST FACING SHORES...
POSSIBLY INCREASING A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...EATON



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office