| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 5.6 C |
| RH | | 20 % |
| Wind | | WSW 35 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 225 FXHW60 PHFO 210202 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST MON MAY 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST ODDS FOR SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRADE WINDS WILL REBUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH UNSETTLED TRADE WIND WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... A LIGHT WIND...LAND AND SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE PATTERN PREVAILS AS A RELATIVELY RARE...MID-MAY CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS ABOUT 425 MILES NORTH OF OAHU. A RAGGED...DISSIPATING FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED OVER MAUI COUNTY WHILE ANOTHER BAND MARKING AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS LINGERING JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS HAS POSITIONED A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE... ABOUT 0.4 OF AN INCH MORE PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN NOTED ON THE LIHUE SOUNDING...BUT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE PRODUCED ONLY SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. OAHU HAS SEEN LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE RAINFALL ON KAUAI HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHING UP ON MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ON THE ISLANDS AS LAND BREEZES LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING. THE CONVECTIVE LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILL. A BAND DEEP MOISTURE MARKING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE....THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO FUEL RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS TUESDAY AND KAUAI ON WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE IF SHOWERS GET A BOOST...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FUEL CONVECTION. AS THE CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY FILLS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL CAUSE TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REBUILD. EXPECT A RETURN TO A TYPICAL...LATE-SPRING PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...TRADES WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT ATN ENHANCEMENT TO SHOWERS AS A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. && .AVIATION... AT LEAST FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS...VFR IS THE PRIMARY FLYING COND FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG/S WEATHER. THE AFTN CLD BASES OVR INTERIOR AND MTN AREAS ARE PRETTY MUCH ABV MVFR CRITERIA...AND THE SHRA HAVE ISOL SO FAR. WE LIKELY WL BE ABLE TO GET BY WITHOUT ISSUANCE OF AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC. ANY MVFR CEILINGS ARE LOCAL OR ISOL AND NOT WIDESPREAD. THE BIG ISLAND IS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BUT APPEARS THE SHRA ARE MOST ACTIVE ON THE LEE SIDE MAINLY SW OF KAMUELA WAIMEA AREA. SHRA ARE ISOL IN COVERAGE ELSEWHERE ARND THE BIG ISLAND. A SOLID...STRONG SW WIND FLOW ACRS LEE SIDE BIG ISLAND MAY LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY TO ISOL...PLUS THAT THE CEILINGS ARE MAINLY ABV MVFR LVL. WL CONT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR MVFR CONDS && .MARINE... THE SOUTH SWELL REMAINS AS THE MAIN STORY ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES HAS BEEN EXTEND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY. NORT FACING SHORES WILL ALSO SEE A BOOST TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE AVIATION...LAU Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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