| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -2.5 C |
| RH | | 96 % |
| Wind | | NW 26 mph |
| Road | | Closed |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 647 FXHW60 PHFO 051338 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COOL AIR MASS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK... AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. OVER THE BIG ISLAND... THE RAIN AND DEEP CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER RAIN BAND MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... DEEP CLOUD LAYERS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...EXPOSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI...BUT REMAINING THICK OVER THE BIG ISLAND. SHALLOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILLED IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEEP LAYERS THOUGH...KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING...THESE LOWER CLOUDS STILL MANAGED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. POPS...CLOUDS...AND RELATED FIELDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THE AIR MASS REMAINED RELATIVELY MOIST...AND CERTAINLY SATURATED...THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WERE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY TO BE CALLED PROPER TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS TOO HIGH TO BE CALLED TYPICAL. ALOFT...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE BROADER LOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTED TO THE INSTABILITY DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH THE TROUGH HAD BECOME LESS SHARPLY DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CLOUD LAYERS HAVE LEFT MAUI COUNTY...SOME SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THERE. ONE POSSIBILITY MAY BE THAT THE CLOUD LAYERS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN BRIEFLY...AS SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTED...BEFORE FRAYING SLOWLY THERE AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS TREND AS WELL. IN ANY CASE...KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER THE COLD-AIR CUMULI...AND PERHAPS THE SHOWERY STRATOCUMULI. GUIDANCE GENERALLY PREDICTED A PAIR OF FRONTS TO CRASH INTO THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY THOUGH. SOLUTIONS STARTED TO DRIFT APART BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PREDICTED A LOBE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO SWEEP OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN...PROVIDING UPLIFT AND REDUCING STABILITY. GUIDANCE DID AGREE THAT WATER VAPOR WOULD ACCUMULATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES AGAIN BY THAT TIME. THE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT MAY ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN... POTENTIALLY BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION...SOUTH OF THE STATE. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER TYPICALLY WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE STATE. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES LATER IN THE WEEK... POSSIBLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. OTHERWISE...SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS- BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ RYSHKO Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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