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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

531
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW
MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED
FRONT LINGERS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF PW WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE
DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA
SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office