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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

617
FXHW60 PHFO 290624
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MAINTAIN A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EASE OFF SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. UNDER THIS TRADE WIND REGIME...
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1030
MB HIGH LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. BREEZY
TRADES FROM THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EASING OFF
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG STRENGTH... AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE
HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF ALL OF THE LARGER ISLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD COMMUNITIES OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS...GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS IS STABLE HOWEVER WITH A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 7 AND 9K.
THUS...THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND
MISTY AND BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE
INVERSION IS HIGHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AT 10K FEET...THUS
SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE INTENSE SHOWERS.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCE IN OPINION WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF /EC/ SHOWS TRADES. A NEW EC RUN WILL BE IN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO WE WILL SEE HOW THE TWO MATCHES UP.
WILL STAY WITH A TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES HAVE ISOL
MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSC THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND HAS WARRANTED AIRMET SIERRA...MTN
OBSC THAT WILL BE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE DUE OUT AT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY TO COVER THE
LEEWARD MAUI COUNTY WATERS. THUS...THE SCA NOW COVERS ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS. WE WILL BE TRIMMING THESE ZONES BACK STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT COULD BE DELAYED.

SEAS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
IS DUE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A NEW MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY TOPPING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM HST SATURDAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR
MAJOR CHANNELS AROUND MAUI...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

LAU




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office