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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 231350
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST Sun Oct 23 2016
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue today, then
gradual decline through Tuesday as high pressure far north northeast
moves west and weakens. Trade wind weather will prevail, with
passing showers affecting mainly windward terrain. Some showers may
also occasionally reach the leeward sections on smaller islands
under the gusty trades. Another strong high pressure is forecast to
reach far north of the islands by the next weekend, bringing
possibly another round of strong trade winds to the area.
Breezy to locally windy trade winds continue today, as a slightly
strong surface high stays far north-northwest of Kauai. Winds will
remain rather strong and gusty over portions of Maui county and the
Big Island, including the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.
Therefore a wind advisory is now in effect for portions of Maui
county and the Big Island until this evening. Quite a bit of low
clouds are present along the windward coastal waters of Maui and Big
Island early this morning, as revealed by latest satellite imagery.
Expect these clouds to bring more showers to the windward areas for
those islands today. Elsewhere mainly scattered low clouds are
present, providing some passing showers today. Early morning Lihue
and Hilo soundings revealed no surprises, with low level moisture
extending to about 7 thousand feet at Lihue to about 9 thousand feet
at Hilo while the airmass is marginally stable and not very moist.
Trades will gradually decline late today as the surface high that
drives the winds shifts westward and weakens. A further drop in the
winds to moderate level is expected through Tuesday. Latest forecast
models still indicate this easing of the winds will be short-lived,
as another strong high is forecast to reach far north of the state
toward the latter part of the week. Trades may start strengthening
as early as Wednesday and are forecast to become rather strong over
the next weekend.
Overall, trade wind weather will prevail through much of the week,
though areas of low clouds reaching the state will periodically
lead to an increase in shower activity. In fact, a little more
clouds and showers are expected for the islands tonight as remnants
of a front may pass the island chain.
High pressure north of the state will keep a breezy to locally
windy trade wind flow in place through tonight. Showers will
favor windward and mauka areas, but the strong trades will
periodically allow some showers to move into leeward locations as
well. Temporary MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas
as shower bands move through. Otherwise, predominantly VFR
conditions are expected.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across Oahu
Molokai Maui and the Big Island. Conditions are expected to
improve later this morning.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turbulence over
and downwind of the mountains across all islands, as well as
moderate upper level turbulence due to jet stream winds.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all coastal
waters today as rather strong trade winds continue in the island
vicinity. Conditions are expected to slowly improve as the winds
gradually decrease tonight through the next couple of days.
Hence, the SCA areal coverage will be pared down to the typically
windy waters around Maui and the Big Island by Monday. Another bout
of strong trades is expected to develop toward the next weekend.
This may lead to SCA conditions for all coastal waters again.
A high surf advisory remains in effect for east facing shores
exposed to the rough, wind-generated seas through this evening due
to the strong winds. A slow decline on the surf is expected starting
later today as the winds are expected to gradually ease. A moderate
northwest swell is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. A small south
swell will reach the south facing shores late this
afternoon...peaking Monday...then slowly decline.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for east facing
shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and Big Island.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-South Big
Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office