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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

792
FXHW60 PHFO 051013 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1215 AM HST SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT OF
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL SPREAD OVER THE
ISLANDS AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES AWAY. SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE LATE MORNINGS THROUGH THE EVENINGS WITH
CLEARING SKIES DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. THE
WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE JIMENA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1200 M...THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HAVE MOSTLY MOVED
OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAIN OVER KAUAI AND THERE ARE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE KONA DISTRICT OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE IGNACIO AND A TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LAND
BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE IN MOST AREAS BUT SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE OVER KAUAI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST WINDS
OVER THE WATER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO PREVAIL. SEA
BREEZES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS MAINLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAND
BREEZES WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS. THE MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT OF IGNACIO
AND A TROUGH ALOFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO BRING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVER OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE EAST...SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND TO EXPIRE TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL LINGER OVER OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
EVENING.

THE WEATHER OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL DEPEND OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JIMENA. JIMENA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST. IF JIMENA HOLDS
TOGETHER AND PASSES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...IT COULD BRING
MORE OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND WET WEATHER THAT HAVE OCCURRED THIS
WEEK. IF JIMENA TRACKS CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS WE COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. EVERYONE SHOULD FOLLOW THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR COND WILL PREVAIL BUT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
TCU AND CB TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. THESE BUILDUPS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER WATER DURING THE NIGHT AND OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE
DAY. MTN OBSC IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL KEEP SURF ABOVE THE
WARNING LEVEL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES OF
THE ISLANDS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE SWELL. LANAI AND NIIHAU WILL BE
SHIELDED FROM THIS SWELL.

A SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND. SEE THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU...SRDHFO...FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI
AND OAHU.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 600 PM SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM SATURDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

$$
DONALDSON