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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

634
FXHW60 PHFO 231332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR BUT BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON








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