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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

089
FXHW60 PHFO 110700
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT THE TRADES TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING GUSTY TRADE
WINDS...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO FUEL A WET TRADE WIND FLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS KEEPING A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST N
OF KAUAI...WHICH IS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING S TOWARDS THE W HALF OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN.

MEANWHILE...A SFC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...KEEPING LIGHT
WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
ALSO...EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND OF RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES THU
MORNING.

GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ESTABLISHING FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A TRADE WIND PATTERN GRADUALLY RETURNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SAT. THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND VEERING SFC WINDS TO A
LIGHTER SE FLOW. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL TRANSLATE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SMALLER
ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH NE OF THE ISLANDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BRING STRONGER TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN
AREA OF LINGERING ENHANCED MOISTURE UPSTREAM AND N OF THE
ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER COLD FRONT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
PUSHED BY THE TRADES BACK INTO THE ISLES. THUS... EXPECT INCREASING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...WITH TRADE SHOWERS POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS AT TIMES. BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.

THEREFORE...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG TERM RAINFALL FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY OUT ON KAUAI...CLOUDS
FROM A FRONT JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND WILL OOZE ON
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH THESE CLOUDS. ALSO...
EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS WITH NO RESTRICTION TO
VIS.

ELSEWHERE...THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS CONTINUES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K FEET...OR ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE ARE NO
AIRMETS IN EFFECT...AND NONE ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A DANGEROUSLY LARGE NNW SWELL IS PRODUCING VERY LARGE SURF ALONG
EXPOSED N AND W FACING SHORES. THE POWERFUL SURF IS CURRENTLY
POUNDING ISLAND SHORELINES. DETAILS ON THIS SWELL AND ITS IMPACTS
CAN BE FOUND ON THE LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/.

THE LARGE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
LATE FRIDAY. A WNW SWELL EXPECTED SUNDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF
REACHING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST N AND W FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE W COMPONENT OF
THIS SWELL MAY ALSO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE W FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE NNW SWELL. THE STRENGTHENING TRADES MAY CAUSE WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO THE SCA CRITERIA IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHUMOLOKAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU