| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 3.8 C |
| RH | | 11 % |
| Wind | | SSE 10 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 316 FXHW60 PHFO 010117 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 330 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. A STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE WETTEST MOUNTAIN SPOTS. IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE IS POISED TO DRIFT UP ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING...DO EXPECT A BUMP IN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDWARD AREAS...DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. LOOKING AT FRIDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE STATE AS THE SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. ALONG WITH THE MUGGIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL TEND TO BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE WETTEST AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...AS MOISTURE VALUES CLIMB HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE VALUES WILL PEAK OUT LATE FRIDAY EVENING ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THIS TIMING SHOULD MATCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE...ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...BUT NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS MINIMAL AS WELL. EXPECTED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND 1-3 INCHES...AND WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FOR NEXT WEEK...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...LIMITING TRADE SHOWERS. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TONIGHT FROM THE EAST...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THAT TIME. DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .MARINE... LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...25 KNOT WINDS AND ROUGH...CHOPPY SEAS...TO THE WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRENCHLEY AVIATION...FOSTER Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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