| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.2 C |
| RH | | 16 % |
| Wind | | ESE 26 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 616 FXHW60 PHFO 250635 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 835 PM HST THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN RECOVER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH FLUCTUATES IN STRENGTH. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD SECTIONS. && .DISCUSSION... RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA INDICATE A TYPICAL MODERATE TRADE REGIME PREVAILING...WITH SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS BRINGING LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AND SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS INTO LEEWARD AREAS. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED RELATIVELY WEAK AND HIGH INVERSIONS BASED FROM 7000 TO 8500 FEET ACROSS THE STATE...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BENEATH THE INVERSIONS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES NNE OF HONOLULU...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO MIDWAY AND BEYOND. ALOFT...AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ARE STREAMING ACROSS HAWAII...TO THE EAST OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN 170W AND THE DATELINE. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE EXPECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST ACROSS WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD. THE EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WHILE REMAINING NEAR 1030 MB STRENGTH...CAUSING TRADES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LOWER INVERSIONS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE TYPICALLY FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AND HEADLAND/RIDGE LOCATIONS...AND ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL EVALUATE LATER TONIGHT TO DETERMINE IF WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ZONES ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH A LOWERING INVERSION AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST WOULD EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SPILLOVER INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE FRONT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL CAUSE THE TRADES TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. SEABREEZES MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MODERATE TRADES SHOULD RESUME TUESDAY... AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SHEAR LINE WASH OUT ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS PREVAILING. && .AVIATION... PASSING SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW 8000 FEET TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING COMBINED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REACH THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS...PRODUCING ROUGH SURF NEAR OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE WINDS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SWELL WILL DECREASE SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON AVIATION...KINEL Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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