| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -1.2 C |
| RH | | 96 % |
| Wind | | WNW 8 mph |
| Road | | Closed |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 718 FXHW60 PHFO 040849 AAA AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1050 PM HST TUE MAR 3 2015 .UPDATE... A TROUGH ALOFT HEADED TOWARD THE ISLANDS IS NOT YET HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SUMMITS TILL TOMORROW. && .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING OVERCAST CLOUDS TO ALL THE ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE AREA...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI. THE WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE TEMPORARY. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SO MORE PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. && .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT MADE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 800 PM...THE THUNDER HAD ENDED ON THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. TRADE-WIND WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THICK LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE SKIES OVER ALL THE ISLANDS. A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH ALOFT LIES NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MORE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL COME AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES. && .AVIATION... AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAYERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MAY GET THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICING... SO AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LANAI TO KAUAI BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS. && .MARINE... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS STARTING AT 600 AM WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...AND THIS SURF COULD REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORES. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 600 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAUAI... KAIWI...MOLOKAI AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...WATERS WEST OF KAUAI... MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FOR STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA. && $$ DONALDSON Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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