| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 2.6 C |
| RH | | 25 % |
| Wind | | WSW 33 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 742 FXHW60 PHFO 221411 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST WED MAY 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DAY TIME HEATING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. NIGHT-TIME LAND BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED BUT BROUGHT ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE ISLAND SKIES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING IN THE ISLAND VICINITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR DATA INDICATE FEWER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS..ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY STABLE AIR MASS...THOUGH HILO SOUNDING IS STILL A BIT MORE MOIST THAN LIHUE/S. SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER MORNING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW LINGERS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ONCE AGAIN. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER DAY TIME HEATING AS WELL AS CONVERGING SEA BREEZES. THE LOW NORTH OF THE STATE WILL FINALLY MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IN TURN...TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN SLOWLY TO THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA. MOREOVER...TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MORE TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADE WIND WEATHER...POSSIBLE WETTER THAN USUAL...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS AS WELL. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL THROUGH REST OF TODAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS TO SOME TAF SITES. THERE MAY ALSO BE LOCAL MVFR VIS CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF PHTO DUE TO VOLCANIC EMISSIONS. && .MARINE... THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD TREND...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS TODAY. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS REACHED OAHU OVERNIGHT...BRINGING QUITE ELEVATED SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY...THEN SUBSIDE IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH BY THE WEEKEND FOR SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. && $$ HUI Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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