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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

304
FXHW60 PHFO 170130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS AND DRY...STABLE AIR ALOFT...WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL...
AND BOOST WIND SPEEDS A BIT STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE WINDWARD
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RATHER DRY AND STABLE SO RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY AND THE TRADES WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL SEA
AND LAND BREEZES TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW VOLCANIC HAZE TO BUILD UP AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CARRY
THE HAZE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE IS APPROACHING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY SUNDAY SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONLY
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SLOPES. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
AND OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF REPORTS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SOUTH SWELL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN BOTH SIZE AND PERIOD...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FADE AWAY BY FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ROLL IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON



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