| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 0.0 C |
| RH | | 16 % |
| Wind | | WSW 6 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 418 FXHW60 PHFO 131423 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST FRI DEC 13 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE ISLANDS ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE ISLANDS WHILE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD AREAS AT TIMES. WETTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT REACHES THE ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS DID CLEAR OAHU AND MOLOKAI EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER THE LAND BREEZES WHILE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL THIS MORNING AND THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP THE SKIES A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY TODAY. SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS IS MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AS INDICATED BY EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS...THOUGH WIND PROFILES FROM THE KAUAI AND MOLOKAI RADAR SUGGEST THERE ARE SOME EASTERLY WINDS AT THE LOWEST LEVEL. STILL EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...DUE TO THE PRESENT OF A STALLED FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS AS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BLOCKED BY THE EASTERN ISLANDS. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WHILE SEA BREEZES WILL FORM DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS UNDER DAYTIME HEATING...AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AS WELL...WHILE NIGHT TIME COOLING WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES. LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MAY REACH THE ISLANDS AS WELL...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AREAS AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD INVERSION AT THE LIHUE SOUNDING AT AROUND 5K FEET. AT LEAST THE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY HAS BECOME MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WETTING RAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS MAY FEEL WARMER DURING THE DAY DUE TO A LACK OF WIND. VOLCANIC HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEREFORE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL RESUME ITS MOVEMENT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DESCENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL DISPLACE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER KAUAI LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES ALONG. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AS COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAINLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE STATE BY TUESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS...MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN DIFFER SOMEWHAT OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATE A SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GFS PRETTY MUCH KEPT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE OPTED TO BLEND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...WHICH STILL SHOW MAINLY TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS TRADE WIND WEATHER OVER THE STATE. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS CARRIED BY THE E TO ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING ISOL MVFR CIGS OVER E FACING TERRAIN TODAY. NO AIRMET IS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... A LARGE NW SWELL WILL BUILD RAPIDLY LATER TODAY...BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT SEAS CONDITIONS TO THE EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS AT THE SAME TIME. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM HST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. && $$ HUI Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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