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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 260647
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
847 PM HST MON JUL 25 2016
Muggy conditions will continue tonight and Tuesday as the remnants
of Darby continue to track westward and away from the state. High
pressure building north of the islands will strengthen the trade
wind flow through the remainder of the work week, ushering in more
comfortable conditions. A more showery trade wind pattern is
expected to move over the island chain this weekend.
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1700
miles to the northeast of Honolulu, while Hurricane Georgette is
located around 1750 miles east of Hilo. Closer to home, the
remnant low of Darby is located around 200 miles to the west of
Lihue, and continues to influence the winds over Kauai and to a
lesser extent over Oahu. Across Maui county and the Big Island,
light to moderate trade winds have become re-established.
Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in
place across most of the state, with a few light showers noted in
radar imagery mainly west of Oahu. Main short term concern for
tonight revolves around rain chances.
Rest of tonight...
High pressure will remain nearly stationary well northeast of the
state, while the remnants of Darby continue to push westward and
away from the island chain. This will allow light to moderate
trades to become established across the entire area by daybreak
Tuesday. Inversion heights on the 12z PHTO and PHLI soundings were
at or below 6 KFT, and this will greatly limit any shower activity
overnight. The best chances for showers, although chances will
remain low, will be over Kauai and windward sections of the other
islands. Any rain that does fall will remain light.
Tuesday through Friday...
High pressure will strengthen to the north of the island chain,
and this will lead to a return of moderate to breezy trades for
the mid to late week period. Inversion heights will remain low
with precipitable water values near to below climatological norms
through the period. As a result, the amount of trade wind shower
activity should remain suppressed, with clouds and showers focused
primarily over windward and mauka areas. Muggy conditions are
expected to hang around on Tuesday, with more comfortable
conditions arriving for mid to late week.
Friday night through next Monday...
Model solutions are in good agreement showing high pressure
remaining nearly stationary to the north of the state through the
period, keeping a moderate to breezy trade wind flow in place.
Guidance also shows lowering upper level heights and increasing
moisture getting caught up within the trade wind flow, some of
which will likely be the remnants of Georgette. As a result, we
should see an increase in trade wind showers across the state,
with the activity focusing primarily across windward and mauka
Trade winds and much drier weather will spread westward across
the state overnight and Tuesday, with VFR conditions prevailing.
There is some potential for MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration
over Kauai during the night, as a band of cloudiness trailing
behind the remnant low of Darby may move over the island later on.
AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration may become necessary there.
Otherwise, no airmets are expected overnight into Tuesday.
Small craft conditions are expected to return to the typically
windier locations near Maui and the Big Island on Tuesday, then
expand to other marine areas through the week as high pressure
strengthens north of the island chain.
Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels through the work
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office