| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.7 C |
| RH | | 95 % |
| Wind | | W 28 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 066 FXHW60 PHFO 090630 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST SAT MAR 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY REACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO MOVE ONTO THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ALLOWING MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO PUSH A LOT OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ONTO WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. ONE EXCEPTION IS KAUAI WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT IN PLACE AND WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY WET PATTERN OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. MODERATE TRADES WILL FUEL DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS...DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL RUNS STILL SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING POSSIBLE WET WEATHER TO THE ISLANDS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT LOOKS LIKE TRADES WILL PERSIST AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES. WITH A ROBUST FOLLOWING HIGH EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...TRADES MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE STATE BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... MUCH LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS EVENING...AS MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. BUT THEN THE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY IS EXTENSIVE ENOUGH SUCH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE REACHING THE LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLAND AT TIMES. REGARDLESS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE MVFR CEILING CONDITION MAY BE MORE PREVALENT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSC WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE ENOUGH BY SUNDAY SUCH THAT THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE AIRMET WILL BE REDUCED. THERE ARE STILL LAYERED CLOUDS MAINLY OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...ICING MAY STILL BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL. THESE LAYERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY THIN OUT OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... THE CURRENT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OVER LOCAL WATERS WILL DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR SELECT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...SEE CFWHFO ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON THURSDAY. A SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY ON SOME NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL DROP AS THE SWELL LOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK TO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AT LEAST IN THE CHANNELS. THE ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY SEE STRONG ENOUGH TRADE WINDS TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE USUAL WINDY CHANNELS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY- && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER AVIATION...HUI Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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