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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

952
FXHW60 PHFO 310628
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE
IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO PASS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF BREEZY
AND WETTER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WHEN WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF
IGNACIO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ONCE IGNACIO MOVES AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS...DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS EMBEDDED HAVE BEEN REACHING THE ISLANDS AT
TIMES...BRINGING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE ALIGNED ALONG THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAUAI IN THE COMING HOURS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...MORE LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THESE CLOUDS CARRIED BY THE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

LATEST FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER KEPT
IGNACIO ON A FAIRLY STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH THE CENTER PASSING
ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TRADES TO
CONTINUE ON MONDAY...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTH...THEN WEST...AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS IGNACIO HEADS NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON
HURRICANE IGNACIO...PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.

EVEN AS IGNACIO DEPARTS THE ISLANDS NORTHWEST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF THE STATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. FORECAST MODELS ALSO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO LINGERING IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. IN
FACT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
WINDWARD SITES. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS FROM IGNACIO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG ISLAND EAST FACING
SHORES OVERNIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS A
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI. THIS ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS...WITH
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS.

STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
NORTHEAST THE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS...THOUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
IGNACIO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND VICINITY...BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS CONDITIONS FOR ALL WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
KAIWI...PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-LEEWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

HUI