Current Conditions
Temp8.0 C
RH24 %
WindESE 10 mph
RoadClosed
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

786
FXHW60 PHFO 070211
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS BUT MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
DRIVING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS AT HILO AND LIHUE SHOW FAIRLY NORMAL VALUES PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH STABLE MIDLEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED PASSING WINDWARD SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO THE WINDWARD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.

THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO FRESH BREEZES BY THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. THIS IS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
NORTH OF THE STATE...MERGING WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY
CARRY IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS AND WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
THE ISLANDS. AS WINDS STRENGTHEN BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE OF THE SHOWERS REACHING THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

WE ARE MONITORING A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE TROPICS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST PASSING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BRING A CHANGE TO OUR
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE WHAT IMPACTS THERE WILL BE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS AND WILL HAVE
MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMING DAYS. AS A REMINDER THAT IT IS
HURRICANE SEASON AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED...PLEASE USE
CHECKLISTS AND INFORMATIONAL RESOURCES EITHER ON OUR WEBSITE OR
STATE CIVIL DEFENSE.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW GENERALLY 15-20KT OF WIND THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ACARS FLIGHTS OUT OF LIH/HNL/OGG ALSO SHOW WINDS
UP TO 20 KT. A COUPLE PIREPS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED NEGATIVE
TURBULENCE NEAR MOLOKAI AND MAUI. AN AIRMET FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY DUE
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. AS CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE AND RECENT
REPORTS ARE OF SMOOTH AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN AIRMET FOR NOW AND
SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING.

POCKETS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL ENHANCE CLOUDS
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS PRIMARILY VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...
PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS THINNED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT FILL BACK IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES DUE
TO A BUILDING SOUTH SWELL. SURF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE CFWHFO
PRODUCT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALONG THE EAST FACING
SHORES...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY
SURF TO INCREASE THIS WEEK. SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO WINDS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND MAY INCLUDE
OTHER ZONES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI KAHOOLAWE MAUI AND BIG
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BRAVENDER



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office