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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

171
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office