| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 2.0 C |
| RH | | 16 % |
| Wind | | NE 18 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 947 FXHW60 PHFO 260631 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 830 PM HST SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will strengthen into Monday and will be locally breezy through the upcoming week. Increasing moisture in the trade wind flow will fuel an increase in windward showers tonight and Monday, with a few showers spreading to leeward portions of the smaller islands. After this moisture diminishes, a typical trade wind weather pattern is expected from Monday night through Friday, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward slopes, mainly during nights and mornings. An increase in showers is possible next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Although afternoon soundings indicated that the island atmosphere is quite stable, with a strong low-level subsidence inversion based around 5 to 7 kft, an increase in trade wind showers is expected overnight through Monday. After this moisture moves W of the islands by Monday night, a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern is expected through the week, with moderate to breezy trade winds delivering passing clouds and showers that will be most active during nights and mornings. An increase in moisture is possible next weekend, as moisture associated with a disturbance about 1200 miles ESE of the Big Island moves closer to the islands. Trade wind speeds are expected to increase a little more through Monday as a front lying between the islands and the trade-wind- supporting high to the N will dissipate, allowing the pressure gradient to increase over the area. As this high tracks E over the next several days, it will continue to support locally breezy trade winds over the islands. These stronger trade winds will help to spread a few of the incoming showers to leeward areas tonight and Monday. Otherwise, a fairly typical pattern of mainly windward and mauka showers will prevail from Monday night through at least Friday. An increase in moisture from the SE may combine with a weak low aloft to the NW to bring an increase in showers next weekend. && .AVIATION... Trade winds continue to bring low clouds with embedded showers to the islands at times this evening. Much of the low clouds and showers will affect mainly windward and mountain areas, providing MVFR ceilings at times through early Monday morning. Winds may be just strong enough to carry some low clouds and showers to the lee areas of the smaller islands, spreading possible brief MVFR ceilings to those areas as well. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Kauai radar wind profile indicated rather robust winds at the lowest levels this evening. Therefore, believe the winds have strengthened enough to warrant an AIRMET for low level mechanical turbulence immediately over and downwind of the mountains. The moderate to locally brisk winds are expected to prevail at least through Monday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy marine zones around the Big Island and Maui through Wednesday and will likely need to be extended through the week. Surf will be small, especially by Hawaii standards, through the week. A series of mainly small pulses of southern hemisphere swell will continue to bring small surf to S facing shores. A pair of small, short-period NW and N swells will continue into Tuesday, but resulting surf along N and W facing shores will be small. Increasing trade winds will drive moderate short-period surf along E facing shores this week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...Birchard AVIATION...Hui Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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