| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.8 C |
| RH | | 22 % |
| Wind | | SW 6 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 334 FXHW60 PHFO 012000 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1000 AM HST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Windy trade winds will persist through Tuesday and lower to locally breezy speeds during the second half of the week. A more stable air mass is forecast to build over the islands today as the upper level trough weakens and drifts south of the Big Island. An increase of trade wind showers is expected late Thursday into the weekend as an upper level disturbance moves over the state. && .DISCUSSION... A 1043 mb high far north of the state will produce windy trades today and a Wind Advisory is in effect across the state. As the air mass stabilizes this afternoon, winds will likely become more gusty with wind gusts of up to 50 mph expected. The Wind Advisory will likely be extended through tonight and potentially through Tuesday as the winds remain strong and gusty through Tuesday. Winds are expected to drop down to moderate to locally breezy speeds during the second half of the week. As far as precipitation, a drier air mass will begin to move in today which should decrease rainfall amounts over the next several days. With the windy trades in place, we will continue to see passing showers especially during the mornings and nights across windward areas, but rainfall intensities will generally be light to moderate. The next notable increase in showers will likely occur late Thursday through the weekend as moisture from an old frontal boundary moves in across the state. At the same time, an upper level trough will move through the state and will bring unstable conditions across the state. Once again, most of the shower activity will be focused over windward and mountain areas. && .AVIATION... The reduction in upstream cloud and shower coverage noted on regional satellite imagery is a sign of the drier airmass now filtering into the area. Ceilings have improved in most areas, although ceilings in the low VFR range will persist in the near term. Shower intensity is forecast to diminish this afternoon as mid- level moisture quality diminishes and convective tops lower, though locally strong trades will continue to focus showery weather over windward areas through the forecast period. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Windward Maui and Big Island. AIRMET Tango for moderate to severe lee turbulence remains in effect. Tango also remains in effect for locally strong surface winds. && .MARINE... Strong to locally gale force trade winds continue as strong high pressure holds far north of the state. A Gale Warning is in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui County, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains posted for all remaining waters due to a combination of winds and large seas. The surface high will weaken and be replaced by another surface high far northwest of the islands on Tuesday, starting a short-lived downward trend in the trade winds. The Gale Warning will be dropped by Tuesday afternoon, and although winds will be on a decline, the SCA will likely remain posted for all waters due to lingering high seas Tuesday night. The SCA may be briefly and entirely dropped by Wednesday as winds and seas decline to border line SCA levels. Trade winds should increase again on Thursday and Friday then hold through the weekend. Large trade wind-driven seas will maintain high surf along east facing shores for the next couple of days. Nearshore buoys have been holding at 10-12 ft at 10-11 seconds since last night, and these fully developed seas will continue to produce rough east shore surf well above the 8 foot High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold into Tuesday. As trade winds over and upstream of the islands weaken, east shore surf will decline to border line HSA levels Wednesday, and the HSA will likely be dropped by Thursday. Expect east shore surf to be just below HSA levels late this week and during the weekend. Surf will remain below advisory levels on other shores through much of the week. Exposed portions of north and south facing shores will pull in some wrapping trade wind swell and keep south shore surf near winter average into Tuesday, followed by a decline late Tuesday and Wednesday. A northwest swell will arrive on Wednesday, peak on Friday, then shift out of the north and decline during the weekend. The bulk of the swell will pass just east of the islands, though north shore surf may reach HSA levels Friday and Saturday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai-Oahu-Molokai- Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Windward- Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East. Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...JVC MARINE...Wroe Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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