| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 8.5 C |
| RH | | 40 % |
| Wind | | ENE 40 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 996 FXHW60 PHFO 101858 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 858 AM HST TUE DEC 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED LEEWARD SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MORNING...RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS USHERING IN WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WITH THE FOCUS ON WINDWARD / MAUKA AREA AND THE UPPER LEEWARD SLOPES. SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOW A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE THAN THE EASTERN...AND REFLECTED BY THE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ON KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON AS CLOUD TOPS WARM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS LOWER. EXPECT THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND SHOWERS LIGHT UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR WEST NORTHWEST OF HAWAII WILL INDUCE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AGAIN LOCALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A HYBRID TRADE / CONVECTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL RESULT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ON THE LEEWARD SIDES...BUT STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY MAKE THE WEATHER LIMITED TO CLOUD BUILD UPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL DUE TO AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OR TERRAIN FORCED SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE ROBUST BY SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THIS MORNING SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL WEATHER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES RETURNING TO THE STATE...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON WINDWARD SLOPES. AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS ALSO IN EFFECT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. && .MARINE... MIXED WNW/NNW SWELL WILL PRODUCING 8-12 FT SURF TODAY. THE CROSSED UP NATURE OF THE SWELLS MAY PRODUCE SETS SNEAKING THROUGH UP TO 14 FT FOR SOME AREAS. A GRADUAL EASING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE NW SWELL BUILDS RAPIDLY POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 15-18 FT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ALSO A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE MODEST SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTICK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER AVIATION...JACOBSON Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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