NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
684
FXHW60 PHFO 070621
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
821 PM HST Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds will continue through Friday with a ridge just north
of Kauai. Over the weekend the ridge is expected to lift
northward, allowing trade winds to gradually return and
strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy trade wind conditions are
expected by Sunday, and persist into the middle of the new week.
Very stable conditions will greatly limit shower activity through
the weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected
Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to the forecast or forecast philosophy this
evening. Anticipate making some changes to the PoPs and associated
fields by the morning package for Tuesday onwards to reflect the
latest guidance from the NBM. A relatively dry trade wind pattern
is expected, through mid week, with a more typical trade wind
pattern expected Thursday onwards.
A east to west oriented ridge remains north of Kauai, maintaining
light winds across the state. There is a roughly east to west
oriented band of high clouds draped over the central islands that
is moving south. Radar imagery and rain gage observations
continue to show very dry conditions across the state. Expect
clouds to clear overnight as land breezes develop. Chances of
showers will remain very limited as the inversion heights remain
between 3.5 and 4 kft, keeping any cloud development very shallow.
A dry land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as low
inversion heights persist and the ridge of high pressure remains
nearby. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend,
which will allow the trades to gradually return from south to
north. Moderate to locally breezy conditions are expected by
Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. Clouds and
showers will return to the more typical windward and mauka areas,
however shower activity will remain limited across the entire
state over the weekend due to very stable conditions from low
inversion levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift
early next week, which should bring a slight increase in trade
wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier than
normal for this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern
should return during the middle to latter half of the week with
rising inversion heights.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light winds will prevail across the state through Friday due to a
weak pressure gradient across the region. As a result, daytime
sea breezes and nighttime land breezes are expected to develop.
Shower activity is expected to remain limited due to the presence
of a relatively dry air mass. Conditions will remain mainly VFR,
with brief MVFR possible through this evening.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for
windward sections of Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Expect
conditions to improve later this evening as land breezes develop.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind
speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold
through Friday. The ridge will lift northward over the weekend,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the
potential for SCA conditions across typical windier waters around
Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
The current south-southwest swell has continued to fill in this
afternoon and will peak Friday. Another, yet bigger moderate long
period south- southwest swell will build into this weekend,
peaking Sunday night into Monday which could reach High Surf
Advisory level criteria of 10 feet at the peak of the event. A
moderate long period south swell is expected to reach HSA levels
late next week.
The current small northwest swell continues to decline.
However, a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will build in late
Friday to give north facing shores a small bump. Wind waves for
east facing shores have diminished significantly and will remain
small into the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
684
FXHW60 PHFO 070621
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
821 PM HST Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds will continue through Friday with a ridge just north
of Kauai. Over the weekend the ridge is expected to lift
northward, allowing trade winds to gradually return and
strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy trade wind conditions are
expected by Sunday, and persist into the middle of the new week.
Very stable conditions will greatly limit shower activity through
the weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected
Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to the forecast or forecast philosophy this
evening. Anticipate making some changes to the PoPs and associated
fields by the morning package for Tuesday onwards to reflect the
latest guidance from the NBM. A relatively dry trade wind pattern
is expected, through mid week, with a more typical trade wind
pattern expected Thursday onwards.
A east to west oriented ridge remains north of Kauai, maintaining
light winds across the state. There is a roughly east to west
oriented band of high clouds draped over the central islands that
is moving south. Radar imagery and rain gage observations
continue to show very dry conditions across the state. Expect
clouds to clear overnight as land breezes develop. Chances of
showers will remain very limited as the inversion heights remain
between 3.5 and 4 kft, keeping any cloud development very shallow.
A dry land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as low
inversion heights persist and the ridge of high pressure remains
nearby. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend,
which will allow the trades to gradually return from south to
north. Moderate to locally breezy conditions are expected by
Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. Clouds and
showers will return to the more typical windward and mauka areas,
however shower activity will remain limited across the entire
state over the weekend due to very stable conditions from low
inversion levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift
early next week, which should bring a slight increase in trade
wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier than
normal for this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern
should return during the middle to latter half of the week with
rising inversion heights.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light winds will prevail across the state through Friday due to a
weak pressure gradient across the region. As a result, daytime
sea breezes and nighttime land breezes are expected to develop.
Shower activity is expected to remain limited due to the presence
of a relatively dry air mass. Conditions will remain mainly VFR,
with brief MVFR possible through this evening.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for
windward sections of Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Expect
conditions to improve later this evening as land breezes develop.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind
speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold
through Friday. The ridge will lift northward over the weekend,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the
potential for SCA conditions across typical windier waters around
Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
The current south-southwest swell has continued to fill in this
afternoon and will peak Friday. Another, yet bigger moderate long
period south- southwest swell will build into this weekend,
peaking Sunday night into Monday which could reach High Surf
Advisory level criteria of 10 feet at the peak of the event. A
moderate long period south swell is expected to reach HSA levels
late next week.
The current small northwest swell continues to decline.
However, a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will build in late
Friday to give north facing shores a small bump. Wind waves for
east facing shores have diminished significantly and will remain
small into the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office