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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

012
FXHW60 PHFO 241910
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
910 AM HST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will focus limited showers over
windward and mauka areas into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Stable conditions firmly in place this morning with a trade wind
inversion established around 6kft per this morning's soundings out
of Lihue and Hilo. The inversion over the western end of the
state is slightly weaker courtesy of upper-level troughing
immediately upstream of the islands but is nonetheless stable.
Moderate to locally breezy E/ESE trades continue through the
forecast period with occasional fluctuations in stability due to
periodic upper troughing advancing through the forecast area.
Overall, only subtle changes in day-to-day weather as a quiet and
relatively dry trade wind pattern prevails.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist across the
Hawaiian Islands through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers
will favor windward coasts and slopes, with greater coverage
expected during the overnight hours. Brief MVFR conditions are
possible in moderate showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward areas of Kauai, Oahu and the Big Island this morning.
Conditions should improve later today, but an uptick in windward
showers tonight may require AIRMET Sierra once again. Stable
conditions with breezy trade winds will create moderate low level
turbulence downwind of terrain. AIRMET Tango is now in effect.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through tonight, keeping fresh to strong trade winds in
place across the island chain. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for most waters around Maui County and the Big
Island, as well as the northwest Kauai waters, through 6 AM
Saturday. For the windiest waters around Maui and the Big Island,
the SCA runs through 6 PM Saturday. A trough will amplify and
linger west of the islands this weekend into early next week,
resulting in a slight easing of the trades and a shift to a more
east- southeasterly direction over the western end of the state.
Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will prevail over the
eastern waters.

South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average
through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south-
southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of
next week. East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average
through Friday, followed by a slight decrease this weekend through
the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of
the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office