NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
146
FXHW60 PHFO 100643
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
843 PM HST Sun Jun 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure
slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward
shores and slopes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure to our north continues to rebound as troughing
farther to the north lifts out. The pressure gradient remains
steep enough to support breezy trade winds across local waters
this evening. Ridging aloft keeps our airmass dry and stable, with
afternoon soundings showing strong inversions near 5000 feet.
Satellite loop shows patchy broken to overcast low clouds across
windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands, with broken to
overcast low clouds across most lower Big Island slopes. Radar
shows only isolated light showers associated with this cloud
cover.
Models show high pressure to our north will track eastward
through the week, with a low shifting the high a bit southward by
next weekend. Our weather pattern will change very little through
the period, with minor fluctuations in wind speeds and mostly dry
and stable conditions continuing. A few windward clouds and
showers will occur at times, but no significant rainfall is
expected through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy trades will increase slightly through tomorrow. With high
pressure and dry air in place over the region, SHRA activity will
be limited. A strong inversion will keep any ceilings fairly low,
allowing for periods of MVFR conds. Otherwise, VFR should
prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb S and W of island terrain.
&&
.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through much of the
week, as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Guidance
suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of
the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh
east-southeast trades.
Surf along south-facing shores has quickly picked up this
afternoon/early evening, due to a fresh, long-period south-
southwest swell filling in. Expect this upward trend to persist
overnight into Monday based on the early evening buoy
observations, which supports the advisory holding through the day
Monday as the swell peaks. A downward trend is anticipated
Tuesday through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south-
southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A
similar long-period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday
night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through
the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest
pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in late
Monday, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into
midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later
this week through next weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as
the trades become established locally and upstream across the
eastern Pacific.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai West-
Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central
Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island
South-Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Gibbs
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
146
FXHW60 PHFO 100643
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
843 PM HST Sun Jun 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure
slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward
shores and slopes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure to our north continues to rebound as troughing
farther to the north lifts out. The pressure gradient remains
steep enough to support breezy trade winds across local waters
this evening. Ridging aloft keeps our airmass dry and stable, with
afternoon soundings showing strong inversions near 5000 feet.
Satellite loop shows patchy broken to overcast low clouds across
windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands, with broken to
overcast low clouds across most lower Big Island slopes. Radar
shows only isolated light showers associated with this cloud
cover.
Models show high pressure to our north will track eastward
through the week, with a low shifting the high a bit southward by
next weekend. Our weather pattern will change very little through
the period, with minor fluctuations in wind speeds and mostly dry
and stable conditions continuing. A few windward clouds and
showers will occur at times, but no significant rainfall is
expected through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy trades will increase slightly through tomorrow. With high
pressure and dry air in place over the region, SHRA activity will
be limited. A strong inversion will keep any ceilings fairly low,
allowing for periods of MVFR conds. Otherwise, VFR should
prevail.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb S and W of island terrain.
&&
.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through much of the
week, as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Guidance
suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of
the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh
east-southeast trades.
Surf along south-facing shores has quickly picked up this
afternoon/early evening, due to a fresh, long-period south-
southwest swell filling in. Expect this upward trend to persist
overnight into Monday based on the early evening buoy
observations, which supports the advisory holding through the day
Monday as the swell peaks. A downward trend is anticipated
Tuesday through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south-
southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A
similar long-period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday
night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through
the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest
pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in late
Monday, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into
midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later
this week through next weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as
the trades become established locally and upstream across the
eastern Pacific.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai West-
Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central
Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island
South-Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Gibbs
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office