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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 202000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST Wed Jun 20 2018

A gentle trade wind pattern will continue today with afternoon
leeward sea breezes. Some volcanic emissions will spread over the
smaller islands through tonight. Building high pressure will
increase trade winds Thursday afternoon, and push any emissions
south of the smaller islands. Trade winds will become breezy
Friday and continue into next week.


Dry and humid conditions will remain through today with limited
rainfall expected. The surface ridge that has been persistently
positioned about 200 miles north of Kauai will remain into tonight,
bringing light trade winds to windward areas, and afternoon seas
breezes and nighttime land breezes to leeward locations. ESE winds
will push volcanic emissions north along the windward Big Island
coast through tonight. This will allow some emissions to reach
the smaller islands.

Thursday, trade winds will be on the rise as high pressure builds
in from the NW and the surface ridge slowly retreats to the N.
Volcanic emissions will be shunted toward the SW and clear from
the smaller islands. Showers will focus over windward and
mountain areas with an occasional shower reaching leeward
locations. Trade winds will be breezy Friday and through the
weekend as a 1035 mb high pressure system takes firm control of
the weather pattern in the central Pacific. Aloft, global models
are indicating a weak upper low will drift close to Hawaii from
the east and weaken our trade wind inversion. This would allow for
increasing cloud tops and the potential for an increase in
showers Sunday and into next week.


Light east to southeast background flow will continue across the
coastal waters today. Fresh to strong trades are forecast to
return starting Thursday as high pressure strengthens far
northeast of the area. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed by Thursday for winds reaching 25 knots in the windy areas
around the Big Island and Maui.

Surf will remain small with no significant swells anticipated into
the upcoming weekend. Surf will gradually build along east facing
shores as trade winds return later tonight and increase Friday
through the upcoming weekend. Overlapping swells from a storm
southeast of New Zealand is expected to reach the area next week
Tuesday and Thursday. More details will be given as the swell
reaches the buoy near American Samoa.


Light trade winds and mainly dry weather will continue across the
state today, with VFR conditions prevailing. Isolated MVFR
ceilings are possible on windward slopes. Areas of MVFR
visibilities are possible across parts of the Big Island due to
volcanic emissions from Kilauea. Trade winds will begin to
increase tonight, becoming breezy tomorrow.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect or anticipated through tonight.






Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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