| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -1.9 C |
| RH | | 10 % |
| Wind | | NE 20 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 585 FXHW60 PHFO 181331 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 331 AM HST Thu Apr 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A surface ridge will remain north of the islands through the coming week. A trough aloft will move away to the east by tonight as a ridge aloft builds over the area. && .DISCUSSION... The 2 AM surface analysis shows a 1024 mb surface high about 800 miles north of the islands near 33N163W. The high is forecast to move northeast and strengthen through tomorrow, then remain nearly stationary through early next week. A ridge extending southwest from the high will remain north of the main Hawaiian Islands and maintain locally breezy trade winds over the islands. As of 3 AM, satellite loops and surface observations show partly cloudy skies over Kauai. Skies are mostly cloudy over windward areas of the other islands with mostly clear skies over leeward areas. Radars show scattered showers moving west over windward areas of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. Little change is expected for the next few hours. The trough aloft will move away to the east tonight and a ridge aloft will persist over the area through early next week. Locally breezy trade winds will continue over the islands. The trades will carry scattered showers over windward areas, mainly during the night and early morning hours. Afternoon heating will produce clouds and showers over leeward slopes of the Big Island and Maui. Otherwise, leeward areas will remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION... Clouds and showers increased during the overnight hours., but Kauai has stayed dry, and will remain mostly dry through today. The other islandsare having scattered showers, favoring the windward and mountain areas, with a few of these showers moving briefly into the lee areas of Maui and Oahu. These showers should be waning as we head further into the morning. The area of showers east of the Big island, also, no longer poses a threat to that island. Current maximum cloud tops are around 13k feet, otherwise they are around 10k feet. Trades will continue to strengthen as the day progresses. AIRMET Tango, already in effect for mechanical turbulence below 8k feet, will continue until further notice, as a ridge of high pressure hold steady north of the area for at least the next couple of days. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds associated with a strengthening ridge north of the islands will fill in today and continue through early next week. A small craft advisory has been issued for the Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels, Maalaea Bay, and over the waters around South Point of the Big Island through Sunday where the strong winds are expected. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small today, then rise tonight into Friday as a new north-northwest (320-340 deg) swell builds down the island chain. This source will be from a gale that was centered over the Aleutians near the Date Line Sunday that quickly tracked south-southeast and weakened Monday through Tuesday. After the peak on Friday, the swell will quickly ease Friday night into the weekend. A small westerly swell from a compact gale that has developed east of Japan will be possible early next week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend with mainly background south-southwest pulses moving through. An upward trend is anticipated early next week, beginning as early as Sunday night due to activity south to southeast of New Zealand over the past few days. Guidance depicts this source peaking at Pago Pago Saturday, which should correlate to above average south shore surf continuing into midweek. Surf along east facing shores will remain small today, then rise slightly Friday through the weekend due to fresh trades locally and just upstream. Expect this trend to continue early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Sunday for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels and waters south of the Big Island. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donaldson AVIATION...Lau MARINE...Gibbs Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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