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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

906
FXHW60 PHFO 211954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A TRADE
WIND PATTERN OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST TODAY
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ENHANCEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MINOR SHIFTS IN PLACEMENT
COMBINED WITH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND SPEEDS AS A
RESULT.

THE EXISTING AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO MAUI
COUNTY BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUING THIS MORNING.
WHILE SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...THE
MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF OAHU BY MID
DAY...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO BE CARRIED OVER THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
OAHU BY THE TRADES. EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO OCCUR WITH KAUAI
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ CONTINUES
TO SHOW 2 INCHES WITH THE MAIN AREA...ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF 2 INCHES
PW HAS SHRUNK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH THE AREA TO BRING HIGHER TOTALS THAN
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH INTACT...WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING IN
ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WETTER THAN NORMAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EAST OF KAUAI. THIS HAZARD WILL SPREAD
WEST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MOVE WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIKELY WILL PERSIST JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE NEW SOUTH SWELL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SURF JUST ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE SWELL SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SHORT-PERIOD TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES. NO SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...POWELL



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office