|Wind||NNE 24 mph|
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 290157
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
357 PM HST Thu May 28 2020
Breezy trade winds with mainly windward showers are expected into
next week. Increasing shower coverage is possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday as enhanced moisture rides in with the trades.
A high pressure ridge to the north will maintain breezy trade
winds through the weekend and into next week. Limited showers will
focus over windward and mountain areas as the trades push
moisture into the windward mountain slopes. Some brief showers
will reach leeward locations as well with the best chances
overnight and into the early morning hours. Models are
anticipating an old frontal boundary to bring increased trade
winds showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as the moisture works
through the island terrain.
Some high clouds will linger through tonight with an upper low
spinning well south of the state. The low and associated high
clouds are expected to exit the area tonight and Friday.
High pressure northeast of the state will keep moderate to
locally strong trades across the islands. Thus, isolated to
scattered shower activity will be mainly concentrated along
windward coasts and slopes and most prevalent overnight into early
morning. Periods of MVFR conditions may occur at times due to
lowered ceilings and reduced visibility from SHRA. No AIRMETs are
currently in effect or expected through Friday.
Moderate to occasionally locally strong trade winds are expected
to persist through the weekend. The current high pressure north of
the islands will be replaced by another high tomorrow. The Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Friday afternoon
for the typical windier areas near Maui and the Big Island after
the morning ASCAT pass showed a large area of 25 kt winds through
the Alenuihaha Channel. Winds are expected to weaken a bit this
weekend, but remain near SCA levels. Stronger trades are possible
early next week, which would likely require another SCA for the
typical windier areas.
A long period south-southwest swell is expected tonight, which
will boost surf along south facing shores. A larger south-
southwest swell is expected early next week, which could bring
surf along south facing shores to High Surf Advisory levels
Tuesday and Wednesday. This swell is expected to pass the PacIOOS
buoy off of American Samoa tonight, which will give us a better
idea of potential size.
A series of small northwest to north swells will maintain small
surf for north facing shores into next week. Surf along east
facing shores will remain below seasonal normal through early next
week then possibly build back to around normal if trade winds
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office