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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

106
FXHW60 PHFO 312110
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1110 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
The Hurricane Warning for The Big Island has been downgraded to a
Tropical Storm Warning as the strongest winds associated with
Hurricane Madeline are expected to remain south of South Point.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Madeline will approach from the east today and pass
near the Big Island later today and tonight. Madeline will depart
to the west of the Big Island on Thursday and track south of the
other islands through Thursday night, bringing a breezy to windy
trade wind weather pattern to portions of state. The weather
pattern over the weekend will be highly dependent on the track and
intensity of Hurricane Lester. Once the effects of Lester exit the
area, a typical trade wind weather pattern will return.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 930 AM HST/
Hurricane Madeline is approaching the area from the east with the
greatest weather impacts expected over The Big Island and possibly
Maui County today through Thursday. Heavy rain and strong winds
can be expected for some areas. For more details on the effects of
Madeline, please refer to the latest Hurricane Madeline Local
Statement (HFOHLSHFO).

For the rest of the state, a breezy trade wind weather pattern can
be expected as high pressure remains north of the state. Winds
could become strong and gusty in places due the the pressure
gradient between the the high and Madeline. Clouds and passing
showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas with a few
showers moving over to leeward areas at times.

After the effects of Madeline depart the area, a rather typical
trade wind weather pattern is expected Friday and on into early
Saturday. After that, the weather across the area will be highly
dependent on the track and intensity of Hurricane Lester. Strong
winds and heavy rains could once again make a return across
portions of the area.

After the effects of Lester move away from the area, a rather
typical trade wind weather pattern will return across the area.
Clouds and some passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas with most leeward areas remaining rather dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 18z, the center of Hurricane Madeline was located near 18.7N
153.6W, approximately 120 miles ESE of PHTO. Tropical storm force
winds are expected to spread over the Big Island today, with
Hurricane force winds becoming possible this evening. Expect
predominately MVFR with periods of IFR conditions along most of
the eastern portion of the Big Island today as Madeline moves
west. Conditions over the western portion of the state are
expected to deteriorate into this afternoon. PIREPS from this
morning indicate strong 30 KT+ winds near and around PHKO. The VAD
wind profiles from both Big Island radars, PHWA- South Point and
PHKM- Upolu Point, have 40 KT winds through much of the layer
through 18 thousand feet.

AIRMET STG SFC WND has been issued for the Big Island for surface
winds associated Hurricane Madeline. See TC SIGMET series ROMEO
for area regarding turbulence and icing associated with Madeline.

Elsewhere...the tightening gradient between Madeline and the
surface high pressure north of the state will allow for an
increase in the northeasterly trade winds today. The 18z sounding
from PHLI shows a low level inversion near 4.6 kft. The VAD wind
profiles from PHMO-Molokai and PHKI-South Kauai show winds between
20-25 KT through much of the layer. AIRMET TANGO for tempo
moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of the
mountains is posted for all of the smaller islands.

AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration is posted along north and
east sections of all islands. Moisture ahead of Madeline will
continue to pass over the state. Clouds and showers will bank up
along the north and east slopes, creating prolonged periods of
MVFR conditions for these areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be highly dependent on the track and intensity
of Madeline and will be highly variable from one location to
another. The strongest winds will be near the center of the system
but strong winds may occur well away from the center due to
terrain effects. Winds and seas will gradually diminish after the
passage of Madeline.

High surf can be expected along east facing shores in association
with Madeline. The largest waves will be along east facing shores
of The Big Island with heights becoming lower as you go up the
island chain. There will also be a bit of an increase along some
south and west facing shores once the system moves west of The Big
Island.

Strong winds, high seas and large surf will once again increase
across many areas beginning Thursday in association with Hurricane
Lester. Specific conditions will be highly dependent on the track
and intensity of the system.

Winds, seas and surf will diminish after the passage of Lester
with a typical trade wind pattern setting up.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Windward-
Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Big Island.

Tropical Storm Warning for Molokai-Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui-Big
Island.

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Warning for Maui County Windward Waters-Maui
County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters.

Hurricane Warning for Big Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel.

&&

$$

Update/Synopsis/Prev Discussion/Marine...Burke
Aviation...Eaton

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office