| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 2.6 C |
| RH | | 62 % |
| Wind | | ENE 6 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 394 FXHW60 PHFO 211953 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WINDWARD OR MOUNTAIN AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW FAR NORTH PUSHES THE SURFACE RIDGE NEARER TO THE ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHIFTS RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL WAS SPARSE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS BLOCKING THE VIEW...SOME SHOWER BEARING LOWER CLOUDS THAT STRETCH FROM EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TO JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS HAVE A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE APPEARANCE. HENCE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW BLOWING TO THE LEEWARD SIDE. IN GENERAL HOWEVER MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BACK DOWN TO MODERATE STRENGTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN A LOW PRESENTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AS A VERY STRONG LOW LATE SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD OUR ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT STALLING BEFORE IT CAN REACH KAUAI. MODELS DO NOT DEPICT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TO PUSH IT DOWN ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. INSTEAD THE LOW MOVES UP TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A NEW SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND AGAIN STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE...ACCORDING TO MODELS...OF SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST REFLECTS A TRADE WIND CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN. && .MARINE... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND NIIHAU AND FOR NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI TO RUN THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PEAK WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL- KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ HOAG Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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