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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

438
FXHW60 PHFO 030642
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND
SEA BREEZES. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY REACH BACK TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS DEVELOPED EARLIER
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS UNDER DAYTIME HEATING ARE ON THE
DECLINE...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BIG ISLAND. AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY IS A LITTLE
UNSTABLE...THOUGH THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION A MINIMAL. BUT THEN CONVECTION FLARED UP ALONG
THE KOOLAU IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE RAINFALL.
THESE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF KAUAI AND OAHU AT TIME. WITH THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC
FLOW...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THOSE ISLANDS OVER NIGHT.

THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
LAND AND SEA BREEZES AS LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
BEGINNING SATURDAY...AS STORM SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE ISLANDS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS. BUT
THEN TRADES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES
TO STILL BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS. THUS EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE STAYS
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN...WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIGHT WINDS...
WILL ALLOW A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. EVENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUPPORTED
BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS THE LAND BREEZE
TAKES HOLD...BUT SHRA OVER THE KOOLAUS ON OAHU WILL PRODUCE ISOL
MVFR VIS/CIG THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. CLOUDS AND ISOL SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
AGAIN PRODUCE ISOL MVFR VIS/CIG OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...AND OVER LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL AND NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER MARINE ZONES
NEXT WEEK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE TRADES BUILD.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BUMP ON THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING THE SOUTH SHORES SURF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP MAY ARRIVE
ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...BIRCHARD



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office