| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -0.7 C |
| RH | | 31 % |
| Wind | | W 20 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 168 FXHW60 PHFO 080645 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST FRI MAR 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG WINDWARD TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE AND HAZARDOUS SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THERE ARE SPOTS OF HEAVIER RAIN EMBEDDED...THOUGH THESE ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH SUCH THAT THEY ARE NOT BRINGING MUCH PROBLEM AT TIME. LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT IS OVER MAUI COUNTY AT TIME...AS BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE DATA FROM THE RADARS SUGGESTED. THERE ARE ALSO SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST BIG ISLAND COAST EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE ITS SHARE OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM AS WELL. THE WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THIS EVENING...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES NEAR THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LEE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS TIMES AS THE SURFACE HIGHS THAT BRING US THE TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING SWIFTLY EAST. FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...ITS PASSAGE OVER THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY MAY LEAD TO A ROUND OF ENHANCED RAINFALL FOR THE STATE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTH WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AS WELL. TRADES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO EASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST...WITH POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER AFFECTING THE STATE. && .MARINE... THE INCOMING NORTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED BUOY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FOR MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH NEXT WEEK AT TIMES TO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE CHANNELS. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING AND VIS CONDITIONS TO THE SMALLER ISLAND TAF SITES...AND THE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY AND MAY EXPAND TO INCLUDE BIG ISLAND AS THE FRONT REACHES THAT ISLAND OVERNIGHT. AIRMET ZULU FOR MODERATE RIME ICING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR THE LAYER 140-FL200 AND MAY ALSO ALSO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD TO THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY. && $$ HUI Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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