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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

535
FXHW60 PHFO 231348
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
348 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME RAINFALL SPILLING OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AT NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
ANA/S LOW PRESSURE AND POSITION HAS REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER HAWAII AND HAS TURNED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING WEST OF THE ISLANDS
LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY NEAR 22N 153W... OR 275 MILES EAST OF OAHU...
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

ANA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...AND TURN OUR WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. LIGHT TRADE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ENERGY FROM ANA WILL MERGE WITH A PASSING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH OUR
TRADE-WIND PRODUCING HIGH EASTWARD... AND PLACE THE ISLANDS ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE TRADE WIND BELT. WITH THE RIDGE SITTING JUST 300
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI... TRADE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LEEWARD SEA BREEZES FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
NORMAL AS TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER
THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHILE SHOWERS FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIGHT TRADE WINDS REMAIN WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED NEAR THE MOUNTAIN AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI... KEEPING THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONFUSED WITH THE
WEATHER SCENARIO FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH SOME BRINGING
STRONGER TRADES AND OTHERS PLACING A COLD FRONT NEAR KAUAI. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE TRADES WITH THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS SUGGESTING THIS SOLUTION.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND MTN OBSC WILL BE THE IMPACTS THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND ALL WINDWARD AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR WINDWARD MTN OBSC IS IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL NNW SWELL WILL FILL IN TODAY AND FADE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL/MODERATE NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION


Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office