| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.0 C |
| RH | | 33 % |
| Wind | | E 4 mph |
| Road | | Closed |
|
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: |
|
Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special |
|
|
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 463 FXHW60 PHFO 170643 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 830 PM HST Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Trade wind weather will continue through the remainder of the week into early next week, thanks to high pressure far north of the area. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Leeward sections of the Big Island will see clouds and showers mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... Locally breezy trade winds prevail across the islands this evening, as a surface high persists far north of the state. An upper level trough in the island vicinity has led to passing showers being enhanced. Bulk of the clouds and showers are affecting windward and mountain areas, though winds are strong enough to carry some of the clouds and showers to the lee areas of the smaller islands. Evening convection is affecting lee areas of the Big Island at this time, though these will slowly dissipate as the night progresses. Latest satellite imagery revealed a little more low clouds over the windward coastal waters at this time, with a slight break in the cloud coverage then an extended line of low clouds further east. In all, expect trade wind weather to continue through rest of the evening into early Wednesday morning. The upper level trough in the island vicinity will slowly move northwest through Wednesday. As such, airmass in the island vicinity will become more stable. Latest forecast solutions hinted a slight decrease in moisture across the area Wednesday. Meanwhile, the aforementioned high will persist far north through the rest of the week, and in fact will strengthen slightly in the next couple of days. The airmass may still be unstable enough for a slight chance of an upslope thunderstorm to develop over the Big Island late Wednesday afternoon. Shall take a closer look at this before updating the forecast on this matter. Forecast models then hinted an increase in moisture for the islands Thursday. Therefore, breezy trade wind weather will prevail for the next few days, with possible slightly less clouds and showers on Wednesday. The high to our north is expected to slowly weaken by the weekend into early next week. This points a slight downward trend in trade wind speeds for the period. Furthermore, the aforementioned upper level trough may sag back southward, closer to the state. This may lead to a slight uptick in shower activity, mainly for windward and mauka areas. Daytime heating will continue to allow for clouds and showers to form over the leeward Big Island slopes each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... A 1032 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands will generate breezy to occasionally windy easterly trades for the next 24-hours. Expect scattered showers to affect mainly the windward and mauka areas with isolated showers passing over onto the leeward side. Periods of MVFR conditions may develop along the slopes tonight due to low clouds and SHRA creating mountain obscuration. AIRMET Tango remain in effect below 7000 ft for areas South thru West of mountain ranges due to tempo moderate turbulence. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will keep fresh to strong trades in place through Friday. The trades are expected to ease slightly over the weekend, as high pressure to the north weakens. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters between Oahu and the Big Island. Fresh trades are expected for the remaining waters not in the SCA, with winds likely flirting with SCA levels at times. We will continue to monitor observational and model trends over the next few days, and expand the SCA to additional marine zones if needed. The current south swell will continue to slowly subside through tonight and Wednesday, with only small background south and southwest swells expected Thursday through the weekend. A bit of a boost in south shore surf is possible early next week, as a pair of overlapping southwest swells move through. Locally strong trade winds will produce choppy waves along east facing shores, but the fetch will be short through Wednesday, so wave heights will remain small. East shore surf will get a boost Thursday and Friday as the upstream fetch of trade winds increases. Surf is expected to stay just below advisory levels along east facing shores Thursday and Friday and slowly ease over the weekend as trades ease. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hui AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Jelsema Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
|