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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

510
FXHW60 PHFO 300705
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
905 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AS WELL AS A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. HURRICANE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT WETTER WEATHER OVER THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF IGNACIO
COULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE STATE. ONCE IGNACIO MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE...
DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DOT THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING...WHILE MOST LAND AREAS HAVE REMAINED DRY FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO OUR NORTH IS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE STATE...WHILE
MAJOR HURRICANE IGNACIO IS CENTERED ABOUT 515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO AS OF 8 PM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER AND WEST OF THE STATE. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RATHER MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILE...WITH WEAK
INVERSIONS BASED NEAR 5K FEET AT HILO AND NEAR 8K FEET AT LIHUE.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS...AS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF IGNACIO. NARROW BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS MOVING WESTWARD AND MAY
BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THAT ISLAND
LATER ON TONIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
AND TEXT FORECASTS.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HINGES ON THE
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE IGNACIO. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK KEEPS IGNACIO ON A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION...PASSING
FAIRLY CLOSE BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE STATE WOULD CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR WEATHER...WHILE A TRACK FARTHER AWAY
WOULD RESULT IN LESS OF A WEATHER THREAT. FOR NOW...WE ARE
DEPICTING A BREEZY AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON HURRICANE IGNACIO...
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. ALSO...FOR ANY AREA UNDER A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH OR WARNING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO HONOLULU.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A REGIME OF GRADUALLY
DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...AS IGNACIO MOVES SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE JIMENA FAR TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM
REBUILDING LOCALLY IN THE WAKE OF IGNACIO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONTO WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING
FIRST ON THE BIG ISLAND...THEN SPREADING UP THE ISLAND CHAIN.
ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED
SHORELINES.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY OVER
WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF IGNACIO.

FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING SURF AND MARINE IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE
IGNACIO...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS...
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO
HONOLULU.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH BIG ISLAND-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

JACOBSON