| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.2 C |
| RH | | 15 % |
| Wind | | E 30 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 197 FXHW60 PHFO 110209 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST TUE DEC 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH LEEWARD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND CLOUDINESS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE RAIN AND BRING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE ALSO UNTIL SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THE TRADES WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A HYBRID TRADE / CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE BIG ISLAND BLOCKING THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. LEEWARD LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WITH CONTINUED STABILITY ALOFT WILL MAKE THE WEATHER LIMITED TO CLOUD BUILD UPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE SHOULD STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ON THOSE RESPECTIVE FACING SLOPES. THAT BEING SAID...THE OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE STABILITY AND EXPECTED DRIER THAN NORMAL FETCH. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE INDUCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE RE-ENERGIZED BY AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ONTO KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW PINCHING OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...THEN DIGGING SOUTH OVER HAWAII MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY THEN...THE LOW WILL PULL VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ONTO THE ISLANDS AND MAY RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL MUCH THAT CAN CHANGE IN THE MODEL RUNS AT THIS POINT SO NOT PUTTING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING YET. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON WINDWARD SLOPES. AN AIRMET FOR INTERMITTENT MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .MARINE... MIXED WNW/NNW SWELL WILL PRODUCE 6-10 FT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL EASING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE NW SWELL BUILDS RAPIDLY POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 15-18 FT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ALSO A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE MODEST SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY TRADES. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER AVIATION...JACOBSON Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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