NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
498
FXHW60 PHFO 240704
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
904 PM HST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp mornings followed by typical daytime high
temperatures expected the next couple of days. Moderate trades
return this weekend allowing overnight temperatures to rebound
toward normal and enhanced trade showers mainly to windward and
mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and crisp conditions expected again tonight into Friday
morning from Kauai to Maui County. Dewpoints in the low to mid
50s and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low
60s and even upper 50s in a few select locales. The front itself
has dissipated in the waters of the Alenuihaha Channel between the
Big Island and Maui and will support redevelopment of just a few
scattered showers within the remnant moisture band tonight. Light
northwest winds will allow for land breeze to develop tonight and
into Friday while shifting northeast. A transient period of mid-
level ridging over the NE Pacific Basin will allow moderate trades
to return late Friday and into the weekend.
CIMSS precipitable water vapor imagery shows a conveyor belt of
enhanced moisture being drawn from the tropics northward
associated with the gale low far north of the state and a trough
260 SE of the Big Island. The low will weaken and get absorbed by
a stronger low to the far northwest and with the return of
easterlies locally, that area of enhanced moisture will shift
westward, reaching the Big Island Friday afternoon then Maui
County Friday evening. Latest hi resolution model guidance shows
the added moisture will generate enhanced trade wind showers
around Maui County and the Big Island Friday night as an upper
level short wave trough dives down, adding some vertical support
along with diurnal tradewind shower pattern. Ridging aloft should
support more typical tradewinds showers over the state Saturday as
the area of moisture shifts over the entire state. A weak front
approaching from the north will move or pass just north of the
state reviving the moisture band over the sate and will keep wet
trades in the forecast for Sunday into Monday.
The extended forecast remains unchanged from previous discussion
where extended guidance continues to show renewed troughing
within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the
lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal
boundary will strengthen in response to developing forcing and
will serve as the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track
near or north of the forecast area during the middle to latter
portion of next week. Convective feedback is playing some havoc
with model solutions at this time, so uncertainty is greater than
normal, but the second half of next week seemingly offers the next
opportunity for meaningful rainfall across some or all of the
island chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
Remnant moisture from a dissipated front will linger over Maui
county and northern Big Island through Friday morning. Overnight
land breezes will promote clearing along the mid and upper slopes,
but isolated showers will linger along windward coasts.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail under a light, dry, and
stable northwest flow.
Light to locally moderate trade winds will return this weekend.
Trade wind showers will begin moving in from the east Friday
evening. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for portions
of windward Big Island or East Maui late Friday night or Saturday.
The upper level trough that passed over Hawaii earlier today has
weakened and exited to the east. SIGMET Papa for high level
turbulence has been canceled.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain weak tonight through early Friday as a ridge
will lift northward late Friday into the weekend, which should
allow light to moderate trade winds to return into early next
week.
A combination of north-northwest and north swells will produce
large disorganized surf along north facing shores. The swells are
expected to gradually decline Friday through the weekend. A High
Surf Advisory remains in effect for north facing exposures through
6 pm HST Friday. A series of moderate northwest and north swells
are possible early next week.
Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore surf
will remain well below normal through the middle of next week. South
shore surf will remain at background very small levels through
the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine
zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values will fall well into the 40s again Friday, but
winds will fall short of the critical fire behavior threshold.
Minimum RH values will rebound above 45 percent Saturday into
early next week. Thus, no critical fire behavior is expected
during the forecast period.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
498
FXHW60 PHFO 240704
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
904 PM HST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp mornings followed by typical daytime high
temperatures expected the next couple of days. Moderate trades
return this weekend allowing overnight temperatures to rebound
toward normal and enhanced trade showers mainly to windward and
mauka areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cool and crisp conditions expected again tonight into Friday
morning from Kauai to Maui County. Dewpoints in the low to mid
50s and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low
60s and even upper 50s in a few select locales. The front itself
has dissipated in the waters of the Alenuihaha Channel between the
Big Island and Maui and will support redevelopment of just a few
scattered showers within the remnant moisture band tonight. Light
northwest winds will allow for land breeze to develop tonight and
into Friday while shifting northeast. A transient period of mid-
level ridging over the NE Pacific Basin will allow moderate trades
to return late Friday and into the weekend.
CIMSS precipitable water vapor imagery shows a conveyor belt of
enhanced moisture being drawn from the tropics northward
associated with the gale low far north of the state and a trough
260 SE of the Big Island. The low will weaken and get absorbed by
a stronger low to the far northwest and with the return of
easterlies locally, that area of enhanced moisture will shift
westward, reaching the Big Island Friday afternoon then Maui
County Friday evening. Latest hi resolution model guidance shows
the added moisture will generate enhanced trade wind showers
around Maui County and the Big Island Friday night as an upper
level short wave trough dives down, adding some vertical support
along with diurnal tradewind shower pattern. Ridging aloft should
support more typical tradewinds showers over the state Saturday as
the area of moisture shifts over the entire state. A weak front
approaching from the north will move or pass just north of the
state reviving the moisture band over the sate and will keep wet
trades in the forecast for Sunday into Monday.
The extended forecast remains unchanged from previous discussion
where extended guidance continues to show renewed troughing
within NW flow aloft will favor low pressure development over the
lower latitudes of the Central Pacific. The remnant frontal
boundary will strengthen in response to developing forcing and
will serve as the baroclinic pathway for the surface low to track
near or north of the forecast area during the middle to latter
portion of next week. Convective feedback is playing some havoc
with model solutions at this time, so uncertainty is greater than
normal, but the second half of next week seemingly offers the next
opportunity for meaningful rainfall across some or all of the
island chain.
&&
.AVIATION...
Remnant moisture from a dissipated front will linger over Maui
county and northern Big Island through Friday morning. Overnight
land breezes will promote clearing along the mid and upper slopes,
but isolated showers will linger along windward coasts.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail under a light, dry, and
stable northwest flow.
Light to locally moderate trade winds will return this weekend.
Trade wind showers will begin moving in from the east Friday
evening. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for portions
of windward Big Island or East Maui late Friday night or Saturday.
The upper level trough that passed over Hawaii earlier today has
weakened and exited to the east. SIGMET Papa for high level
turbulence has been canceled.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain weak tonight through early Friday as a ridge
will lift northward late Friday into the weekend, which should
allow light to moderate trade winds to return into early next
week.
A combination of north-northwest and north swells will produce
large disorganized surf along north facing shores. The swells are
expected to gradually decline Friday through the weekend. A High
Surf Advisory remains in effect for north facing exposures through
6 pm HST Friday. A series of moderate northwest and north swells
are possible early next week.
Aside from areas exposed to wrap from north swells, east shore surf
will remain well below normal through the middle of next week. South
shore surf will remain at background very small levels through
the middle of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for most marine
zones through 6 pm Friday due to 10 foot seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH values will fall well into the 40s again Friday, but
winds will fall short of the critical fire behavior threshold.
Minimum RH values will rebound above 45 percent Saturday into
early next week. Thus, no critical fire behavior is expected
during the forecast period.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai
North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office